World bank report by 2030 indian cities to create 70% of jobs but may lose $5 bn to floods need greater autonomy to counter climate risks

World bank report by 2030 indian cities to create 70% of jobs but may lose $5 bn to floods need greater autonomy to counter climate risks

Indian cities will need some autonomy to invest effectively in climate change adaptation and mitigation, according to Auguste Tano Kouame, the World Bank’s Country Director for India. Cities with more decision-making power have performed better than average, he said on Tuesday at the launch of a report on building urban climate resilience.

The report, prepared by the World Bank in collaboration with the Union Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, estimates Indian cities will require $2.4 trillion by 2050 to build climate-resilient infrastructure and services.

“In order for cities to invest in resilience, adaptation, and mitigation, they need to have some kind of autonomy to make decisions and implement them. Some people think this can be achieved only by fully implementing the 74th Amendment, others disagree,” Kouame said at a media briefing.

The 74th Constitutional Amendment Act of 1992 gave constitutional status to Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) to strengthen local self-governance. However, official audits as recently as 2022 have found that several states have yet to fully implement its provisions.

While the World Bank does not have an official view on this, Kouame said “some version” of the 74th Amendment could be considered. “It doesn’t have to be implemented in the same fashion across all states. It depends on local conditions and several other factors,” he added.

“The truth is that when you look across India, cities that have been given autonomy by the states to make decisions and manage themselves have done well. They’ve done better than average. They’ve been able to mobilise resources, monetise assets, and increase sources of revenue,” Kouame said, adding that devolution of power also improves accountability.

The report titled Towards Resilient and Prosperous Cities in India projects that the country’s urban population will nearly double to 951 million by 2050, and that by 2030, cities will account for 70 per cent of all new employment generated. In addition to the rapid pace of urbanisation, Indian cities will face two major shocks in a business-as-usual scenario — flooding and extreme heat — according to Asmita Tiwari, who co-authored the report with Natsuko Kikutake.

“We found that the flood risk is growing rapidly. Not only are cities growing into areas that are exposed to flooding, they are also building more concrete structures and pavings that restrict the amount of rainwater the ground can absorb,” Tiwari said, referring to pluvial flooding.

According to the report, annual pluvial flood-related losses can amount to $5 billion by 2030 and $30 billion by 2070 if cities don’t invest in adaptation. A conservative estimate for supporting 60 per cent of high-risk cities with flood resilience measures over the next 15 years is $150 billion, it added.

“We also looked into 10 large cities in India, from the period 1983-1990 to 2010-2016, and found that exposure to dangerous extreme heat stress has increased by 71 per cent. Along with that, there is the urban heat island impact — which makes cities warmer at night because they have concrete structures and roads that absorb heat and release it at night,” Tiwari said.

Heat-related deaths can double to over 3 lakh each year by 2050 due to global warming and the urban heat island phenomenon, the report said. Measures like shifting working hours to early morning and late afternoon, urban greening, early warning systems, and cool roofs can save over 1.3 lakh lives, it added.

The report makes several recommendations for national- and state-level interventions, including boosting private sector engagement, creating a financing roadmap, and setting standards to build municipal capacities. For cities, it calls for risk evaluation and the mobilisation of capital — including private investment — to support mitigation and adaptation efforts.