Of patels & prices bjp starts off better than in 2017 inflation is a worry but rising farm prices will help state farmers

Of patels & prices bjp starts off better than in 2017 inflation is a worry but rising farm prices will help state farmers

Another piece has fallen into place for BJP’s grand strategy on 2022 Gujarat assembly elections – Hardik Patel is set to cross over from Congress. From regular sojourns by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to scheduling Gujarat visits by foreign notables like Boris Johnson and Tedros Ghebreyesus, to back-pedalling on unpopular administrative decisions like the Par-Tapi-Narmada interlinking – BJP has been on the ball. Not to mention its smooth realpolitik of engineering defections. Partly this is how today’s BJP is and partly BJP remembers how close it came to getting knocked out in the PM’s home state in 2017 polls.

Patidar unrest was one of the reasons for the near-upset in 2017. Though Bhupendrabhai Patel was appointed CM last year with an all-new cabinet, BJP’s Patidar outreach isn’t stopping with that. A potential worry is the political ambitions of Naresh Patel, an influential Leuva Patidar and who’s in talks with Congress. But Congress is missing its 2017 mojo. The death of Ahmed Patel and defections of other leaders – OBC face Alpesh Thakor, resourceful Indranil Rajguru, and Ashwin Kotwal, a three-term MLA from the tribal belt – are hurting. Winning may be the only antidote against Congress desertions. The party has been out of office in Gujarat since 1995. From 77 MLAs in 2017, Congress’s legislative contingent has dropped to 63. Moreover, traction for issues that propelled it in 2017 – job quotas, GST and low cotton prices – has receded. In fact, higher cotton and groundnut prices this year should make Gujarat’s 53 lakh farmers and 25 lakh agricultural labourers happier. But Gujarat’s strong industrial base means farmers aren’t the only swing vote. The state has an equally big share of MSME and factory workers for whom inflation has worrying portends – 19 lakh workers are engaged in factories while MSMEs employ 61 lakh people (one caveat: these include many migrant workers). Rising input costs that make industries struggle and in second-round effects hit household consumption, in fact, pinch everyone. This is where Gujarat’s low state taxes on fuel may benefit BJP.

Until some months ago, Congress was prepared to make Covid handling a primary election issue. But this year’s five-state elections signal that moment may have passed. The ruthless sacking of the Vijay Rupani government may have also mitigated Covid-related anti-incumbency. Further, the Patel government accepted compensation claims for over 80,000 Covid deaths by February, despite just over 10,000 official deaths. And while AAP is still the new kid, it may end up stealing some Congress votes, giving BJP one more reason to smile.