As unpredictable as it gets

As unpredictable as it gets

India’s most populous State finally goes to the polls today, beginning a seven-phase process that starts from the western fringe of Uttar Pradesh. In this first phase, 73 Assembly constituencies in 15 districts of western Uttar Pradesh will elect their legislators in what is clearly the most diversely contested region of the State, the only one in which all four parties/fronts, the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Samajwadi Party-Congress, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Rashtriya Lok Dal, fancy their chances. That they all see themselves to be firmly in the hunt indicates the change in western U.P. since the 2014 general election when the BJP registered its biggest margins of leads in Assembly segments. Then, riots in Muzaffarnagar and Shamli districts in 2013 had resulted in communal polarisation in the BJP’s favour, supplementing the Narendra Modi wave in the State: the BJP alliance netted 73 of the total 80 Lok Sabha seats. But two years is a long time in politics, and issues such as the demonetisation, the performance of Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, and BSP leader Mayawati’s reliance on a new samikaran (caste-religion arithmetic) have all changed the nature of the campaign.
This time, reports suggest that many in the landed peasantry among Jats are looking again at the RLD, which till not long ago had been staring at a political decline, as a viable choice. Despite a relatively favourable monsoon and a better agrarian harvest, farmers are now less well-disposed towards the BJP following the demonetisation. The BSP has struck a chord with its traditional support base among Dalits and has fielded a large number of Muslim candidates to consolidate support among the minorities. The SP-Congress alliance seeks to ride a wave of positive support for Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav after his combat with party elders. The BJP has its task cut out to retain its support here, with the effects of the demonetisation hurting traders too. But Mr. Modi’s appeal is still strong, especially among the younger voters. The party has tried to use dog-whistle politics — talking of an “anti-Romeo campaign”, for example, as a softer version of its earlier “love jihad” mobilisation — as a polarising tactic, but it is not clear if that will pay off. A more sound strategy has been its reliance on the non-Yadav Other Backward Classes to take on the identity politics of the BSP and the SP. All said, the political landscape in western U.P. remains dynamic, making predictions risky. However, as in the past, the very specific issues of western U.P. may well influence the rest of the State.