Strains in nda besides fighting the rjd led upa a race to the finish line between bjp and jd u hots up

Strains in nda besides fighting the rjd led upa a race to the finish line between bjp and jd u hots up

Nitish Kumar’s omission from BJP campaign posters ahead of the first phase of polling is further indication of “sushasan babu’s” depleting political capital. Opinion polls point to voter fatigue with Nitish even as they predict a comfortable NDA victory. The findings have emboldened Nitish’s detractors within NDA, who have shown ample intent to counter him. LJP fielded candidates against JD(U) while singing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s praises.

Nitish’s flagging popularity combined with LJP’s spoiler act could undermine the prospects of many JD(U) candidates. This raises the possibility of BJP, benefiting greatly from Modi’s general acceptability, powering ahead of JD(U) in seat share, making it a natural claimant for the chief minister’s post. Bihar is the only Hindi heartland state to not have had a BJP CM, and BJP has driven hard bargains with other NDA allies. Thus, constituents within BJP and Sangh Parivar may be hoping that pending their political investment in Nitish, Bihar too is now ripe for a takeover.

Yet such a game plan to unseat Nitish without displacing NDA would come fraught with risk. Voters are likely to be confused by LJP’s unconvincing attacks on Nitish while sparing BJP. LJP’s ability to cut into anti-incumbency votes against Nitish is unproven, unless there are subliminal signals to BJP voters in JD(U) constituencies to switch sides. The opposition is no pushover, evident from enthusiastic attendance at RJD rallies disregarding the Covid contagion. Post-elections, a possible hung assembly scenario could see Nitish doing an Uddhav on BJP and bolting to UPA. NDA’s internal competition and attendant mind games may have put another Bihar election on a knife edge.