Still best friends

Still best friends

India can’t simply abandon Russia to align with what America perceives as its national interest today.

US President Donald Trump’s comment that India will find out “sooner than you think” about the US reaction to its purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defence system has an ominous ring. But whether US sanctions India or not one thing is clear – the issue of India’s ties with Russia is not about to go away soon.

Russia, and earlier, the Soviet Union, has been the sheet anchor of India’s security policy. Its arms transfers have enabled us to field a large and well-equipped military force at a relatively lower cost, and it has generally aligned itself with India’s regional policy. Moscow’s adversarial relationships with China and Pakistan in the past did, of course, help.

More recently, India has sought to align itself with the US, a process that has gained some urgency as the gap between India’s and China’s comprehensive national power has grown. The Americans have proved more difficult customers. Given their global power and reach, and some would say hubris, they demand that regional powers align themselves with their interests. In contrast to the Russian carte blanche in southern Asia, the Americans insist that India line up with them and ignore their own interests.

In the 1980s, when the US sought to wean us away from the Soviet Union, they spoke a different language. Aware that they could not match Soviet terms and conditions, they suggested that we collaborate to develop military technologies to make India self sufficient.

The two sides signed a 1984 MoU on technology transfer. In three decades US arms sales to India have zoomed, but there has been little US-assisted enhancement of India’s military technological capabilities. The Trump administration’s generally narrower focus on global affairs has no time to play out such policies so it is peremptorily ordering India to cease and desist in pursuing ties with the Russians.

In August 2017, their Congress passed a Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) which seeks to wean away countries from Russian weapons systems on the threat of sanctions. India has to decide which way to go. This is not an easy decision since it’s a no-brainer that a country should prefer closer ties with a global power like the US over those with a country whose economy is smaller than ours and whose population is shrinking.

But there are good reasons to pause. First, Russia remains a country endowed by incredible riches in natural resources, as well as military-technological capabilities. Second, it is more inclined to align itself with India’s regional interests in south Asia than the Americans. Third, the isolation of Russia and its even closer alignment with Beijing is not in our interests. Fourth, if India is to play a larger role in the Eurasian landmass, close ties with Russia are important.

Besides providing us a range of equipment from tanks to fighter aircraft and frigates, the Russians have helped us perfect our ballistic missiles and build a ballistic missile submarine. They have leased us a nuclear attack submarine, and are a crucial partner in the ongoing BrahMos programme.

In the coming decade, new strategic capabilities are needed for us to maintain an effective and autonomous deterrent posture. We need nuclear attack submarines and hypersonic technology, to name just two areas. We cannot wait till Uncle Sam satisfies himself of our bona fides and actually unbelts the technology. Given the urgent need – we must get going in the coming decade – it is more than likely that our best option here is Russia.

As for the longer future, there is no certainty that the American “enmity” with Russia will persist. Trump has been in the forefront of those seeking to normalise ties with Moscow. If a deal could be reached on Ukraine, things could change. If the Americans are serious about taking on China, it is in their interest to separate Moscow from Beijing. On India’s part, there is equally compelling interest to push collaboration with both the US and Russia in Eurasian regions like central and west Asia, and not just focus on the oceanic region around southeast Asia.