Rubicon crossed

Rubicon crossed

North Korea's latest nuclear test ¬ it's sixth one and purported to be a hydrogen bomb ¬ clearly exemplifies that the hermit nation's nuclear programme has reached an advanced stage. Combined with Pyongyang's ICBM tests in July, it's possible that the North now possesses the technology to miniaturise its nukes and fit them onto long-range missiles that can potentially hit US territory. Given this scenario, the US and the larger international community need to recalibrate their strategy towards the Korean peninsula. It cannot be denied that North Korea has flown the coop and it's a veritable nuclear power today. Getting Pyongyang to completely abandon its nukes is no longer a feasible option.

The White House hasn't ruled out a pre-emptive strike against Pyongyang's nuclear facilities. It has said all options are on the table. There is, however, only one that is realistic. Military action jeopardises South Korea and Japan which are well within Pyongyang's range and also house thousands of American troops. Never the less the existential threat faced by South Korea is far greater than that faced by the US, and Pyongyang appears already to have achieved its goal of weakening their alliance ¬ as evidenced by US President Donald Trump's tweet blaming South Korea for the nuclear test. Separately, Trump is also weighing pulling out of a trade deal with South Korea.

Trump is also looking to China to help out with North Korea, but Beijing has signalled it has no intention of doing this. At the end of the day, the US and its allies have to recognise that the North was able to get to this point because of the failure of their previous policies. North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong-un has seen what happened to Iraq's Saddam Hussein and Libya's Muammar Gaddafi, dictators who gave up nuclear weapons programmes. He has no incentive to give up his own. But this doesn't mean the North's nuclear programme can't be capped in exchange for security guarantees and conditional aid.

The only logical step forward is a resumption of talks with Pyongyang with the aim of managing the latter's status as a nuclear entity. Moreover, Trump must not give up on the one thing the US got right previously: the nuclear deal with Iran. Withdrawal from that deal will not only harden Pyongyang's resolve to continue developing its nukes, Tehran too is likely to follow in its footsteps.