India’s Russian oil cuts predate U.S. tariffs: data

India’s Russian oil cuts predate U.S. tariffs: data

The 25% additional tariff by the U.S. came into effect on August 27 while government figures show a reduction in energy imports from Russia in the previous months compared with 2024; a Commerce Ministry official said Trump tariffs were imposed at the same time and they were a factor to consider, but they are not driving Indian policies.

India is implementing a larger strategy to reduce its dependence on oil imports from Russia, with the higher tariffs imposed by the U.S. coming at a time when India was already cutting its Russian oil imports, according to an analysis of official data. This has been confirmed by government officials.

An analysis by The Hindu of government trade data shows India’s oil imports from Russia in September 2025 — the first full month during which the U.S.’s 50% tariffs on Indian imports were applicable — were 29% lower in terms of value and 17% lower in terms of volume than in September 2024.

However, the data show that this is part of a larger strategy rather than a reaction to the tariffs, half of which were imposed as a “penalty” for importing Russian oil.

Bigger strategy

The Russian oil-related 25% additional tariff by the U.S. on Indian imports came into effect on August 27. However, data show that India had cut the value of Russian oil imports in eight of the previous 10 months up to September 2025, compared with the corresponding period of 2024. In five of these months — February, May, June, July, and September — the cuts exceeded 20% each. “India has known for a while now that its dependence on Russian oil imports had grown too high and so it was already working on a plan to reduce this,” an official in the Union Ministry of Commerce and Industry told The Hindu on the condition of anonymity, given the sensitivity of the issue.

“The Trump tariffs had come during that time,” the official said. “Yes, they are a factor to be kept in mind, but they are not driving Indian policies.”
Since the 50% tariffs were imposed, U.S. President Donald Trump has been repeatedly claiming that India will be cutting its imports of Russian oil, something the Indian government has neither confirmed nor denied.

Separately, formal trade talks between India and the U.S. have resumed after a brief hiatus, with statements again being made about tranche one of a Bilateral Trade Agreement expected to be concluded “soon”.

Several Indian Ministers, including External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, have asserted that India will make its energy import decisions as per its needs and best interests, and not under duress.

Declining share

The reduction of Russian oil is not just in absolute terms, but also in terms of its share in India’s total oil imports.

Russian oil accounted for about 41% of India’s total oil imports in September 2024, which came down to 31% by September 2025. However, rather than a one-off, the data confirm that this is part of a longer process.

Russia’s share in India’s oil imports grew from 1.6% in 2020-21 to 2% in 2021-22, before steadily jumping to 19% in 2022-23, 33.4% in 2023-24, and 35.1% in 2024-25.

The first six months of 2025-26 had, however, snapped this four-year increasing trend, with Russia’s share falling to 32.3% in the April-September period.

Diversified imports

Russia’s war in Ukraine, the resultant sanctions on it by the U.S. and Europe, and the discounts it provided India resulted in a significant shift in India’s oil import basket for a few years after the war started, with an increasing dependence on Russia.

Some of that is now reversing itself as India has started shifting away from Russian oil.

In 2021-22, the U.S. accounted for 9.2% of India’s oil imports and the UAE accounted for 12.4%. This was when Russia accounted for only 2% of India’s oil imports.

By 2024-25, Russia accounted for 35.1% of India’s oil, while the shares of the U.S. and the UAE had fallen to 4.6% and 9.7%, respectively.

In the first six months of 2025-26, the U.S. share has once again increased to 8% and that of the UAE to 11.7%, even as Russia’s share has fallen to 32.3%.