Hung on it’s already 2019 next

Hung on it’s already 2019 next

Many had predicted a hung assembly in Karnataka. But few had expected it to be so horribly hung. The poll outcome has also brought to the fore the sharp divide between BJP and anti-BJP forces in the state.

BJP has emerged as the single-largest party. But, at the time of writing, government formation looks difficult — unless it can persuade some of the newly elected MLAs from Congress and/or Janata Dal (Secular) to come to its aid, by absenting themselves in the vote, or abstaining, or by resigning, as it did in 2008. Congress, even before results were out, had reached out to JD(S), offering to support an H D Kumaraswamy-led government, an offer he accepted with alacrity.

Congress also persuaded two independents to announce their support, which would enable the coalition to cross the majority mark. The ball is now in Governor Vajubhai Vala’s court. Will he invite the single-largest party, or a post-poll alliance first to form government? There are precedents for both.

This time, Congress didn’t want to be caught napping, as it was in Manipur and Goa. It had stationed veterans Ghulam Nabi Azad and Ashok Gehlot in Bengaluru, and they lost no time in making moves, while Sonia Gandhi called H D Deve Gowda to seal the arrangement.

There are several takeaways from the Karnataka poll that can have a bearing on the forthcoming 2019 Lok Sabha polls. One, there is continuing goodwill for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Before Modi hit the road in Karnataka during the last 10 days of campaigning, the battle was being viewed as a fight between Siddaramaiah and B S Yeddyurappa, and Congress seemed to be ahead of BJP. But when the battle acquired ‘NaMo vs RaGa’ overtones, Congress seemed to be at a disadvantage.

As things stand, if Modi could take BJP from 40 to 104 seats in a state that is not ‘his’ Gujarat, and in a Karnataka where anti-incumbency against the CM was not palpable, how much more would he be able to swing a national election for BJP where he himself will be the prime (ministerial) candidate? The absence of an Opposition leader to take on Modi remains the biggest handicap of the anti-BJP forces, and Karnataka once again showed that.

It goes without saying that BJP president Amit Shah’s formidable election machinery, and polarisation in coastal, central and parts of north Karnataka helped. So did the failure of Siddaramaiah’s ‘Lingayat’ card, which became counterproductive, given the consolidation for BJP in the 70 Lingayat-dominated seats. Modi successfully managed to project Siddaramaiah’s ‘Lingayats’ as a minority’ move as an attempt to divide Hindu society. This view may have also resonated with some non-Lingayats.

The second major takeaway is the clear message delivered once again by the voters that the Opposition will have to sink its differences if it is to have a fighting chance against BJP. West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee was quick to point out that had Congress and JD(S) forged a prepoll alliance, the story may have been different. From all accounts, some kind of an attempt was made. But talks broke down on the issue of chief ministership.

The antipathy that has existed between H D Deve Gowda and Siddaramaiah, after the latter’s exit from JD(S) in 2005, didn’t help. Ironically, the post-poll situation has compelled both Congress and JD(S) to sink their differences, with the issue of who should be CM sorted out within hours.

Unity between Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) had delivered Gorakhpur and Phulpur to the Opposition, within a year of BJP clocking a three-fourths majority in Uttar Pradesh. Congress may have won in Gujarat had it aligned with Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and BSP. At the ground level, opposition unity can affect BJP’s showing in 2019 in four states: UP, Bihar, Maharashtra and Jharkhand.

Will Karnataka have a bearing on the polls due in Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh and Rajasthan, where BJP and Congress will be locked in direct contests? Congress defeat in Karnataka is bound to affect the morale of the party workers everywhere, with the party now heading governments only in Punjab, Puducherry and Mizoram. It could be a different story, though, if Congress manages to keep BJP out of power in Karnataka.

Rajinikanth in Tamil Nadu, and regional parties like Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), Shiv Sena and even Telugu Desam Party (TDP) will now see which way the wind blows before finalising their strategy. A great deal will hinge on who finally forms a government in Bengaluru.