De modi fying discourse

De modi fying discourse

We must judge demonetisation on its effects, not the PM's intentions behind launching it.

Public debate from demonetisation to digital economy to surgical strikes against terrorist camps across the LoC is centred on one man ¬ Narendra Modi. Not only is the Prime Minister placed at the centre of it all, he places himself at the centre as well. So, Congress vicepresident Rahul Gandhi ¬ who is struggling to assume the mantle (दायित्व) of the leader of the oldest party in the country as well as the rest of the opposition ¬ is compelled (बाध्य होना) to address himself to the PM, attack him for his insensitivity as well as threaten to expose his misdeeds. Leaders of other opposition parties too attack, however obliquely, the PM more than his government or BJP because they assume that Modi is everything and the party is nothing.BJP leaders, from president Amit Shah to Modi's Cabinet colleagues and others, pay verbal obeisance (सम्मान/आदर) to Modi again and again. The PM enjoys the adulation (सराहना) as well as the denunciation (निंदा/दोषारोपण) because he remains at the centre of it all. The deleterious (हानिकारक/क्षतिकर) consequences are obvious. The merits and demerits of demonetisation, digital transactions for a less-cash economy and surgical strikes are pushed off the agenda. What remains is criticism on the one hand and stout (मजबूत/कडा/पक्का) defence on the other, of the man's intentions and motives, his vision and his delusion.

It is unfair to blame the PM for enjoying the Modi theatre. He is as narcissist (someone in love with themselves) as any other politician and the strategy of his career to weave the plot around himself, from the 2002 coach burning at Godhra and the anti-Muslim pogrom (सामूहिक हत्या) that followed to the 2014 Lok Sabha election, has been a successful gambit. There is no doubt that Modi has been relentless (अनवरत/सतत/निष्ठुर) in projecting himself as part of his effort to establish his credentials at the national and international levels, making every bid to make his mark ever since he assumed the PM's office. It has to be noted that Indian media have contributed greatly to the making of Modi the Leader. Even Modi partisans cannot deny that he is a larger-than-life figure in the liberal media. The dangers of a Modi-centric discourse have become evident. The opposition has failed to nail the follies of government policies like demonetisation and its grandiose (भव्य/शानदार) plans like Jan Dhan Yojana and JAM. It also appears that the opposition ¬ the semi-socialist Congress, the right-wing and centrist socialists in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Karnataka, and the marginalised communists in Tripura, Kerala, West Bengal, AK Gopalan Bhavan and Ajay Bhavan in Delhi are furious that Modi has stolen their populist thunder.

There is an urgent need to discuss the issues facing the country rather than deifying (देवता-सदृश पूजा करना) or demonising Modi. NDA-2's performance with regard to the economy can be assessed keeping aside the noise about demonetisation. Figures for economic growth in 2014-15 and 2015-16 are quite unspectacular.The growth rate was revised to 5.1% for 2012-13 and 6.9% for 2013-14 with 2011-12 as the new base year. The projection for 2014-15 (the first year when NDA was in power) was 8.1-8.5% at market prices, but the actual growth was 7.2%. Post-demonetisation, both RBI and CSO have scaled down growth expectations for 2016-17 from 7.6% to 7.1%. Optimism ushered in by the new NDA government in mid-2014 was aided by positive factors like the steep decline in international crude oil prices, increased foreign fund flows and lower inflation rate. The Economic Survey for 2014-15 began with the declaration, “A political mandate for reform and a benign (अच्छा/सौम्य/हितकारी) external environment have created a historic moment of opportunity to propel India onto a double-digit growth trajectory.” But there was the conservative note as well: there was no need for Big Bang reforms because, “Big Bang reforms as conventionally understood are an unreasonable and infeasible (अव्यावहारिक) standard for evaluating the government's reform actions.” The Economic Survey of 2015-16 was marked by a change in mood and tone. It speaks of “unusual volatility in international economic environment” and describes India as “a haven of stability and an outpost of opportunity.” It made the observation that in spite of declining exports Indian economy has performed well, and attributes it to a check on corruption. And it persisted with the idea of incrementalism.

Demonetisation is a Big Bang disruption though the government has intended it as a Big Bang reform, because its immediate impact is contraction of the economy and setting in of a deflationary trend. The economy ¬ instead of balancing itself on an even keel at a time when the world economy is still teetering (डगमगाना)¬ seems to lurch (make an abrupt, unsteady, uncontrolled movement or series of movements; stagger) hither and thither (being on this or that side; nearer), whatever the spin doctors in government and BJP have to say. It is not blooming, and it has lost the semblance (अनुरूपता/आकृति) of stability that appeared to be there in 2015 and in 2016. Demonetisation seems an afterthought, intended as an infusion of steroids into the system. It is not a triumph but a panic response in the face of slow growth rates.