Article 370 to g20 india is in a kashmir sweet spot now tick the last boxes

Article 370 to g20 india is in a kashmir sweet spot now tick the last boxes

India has worked hard at earning a sweet spot on Kashmir. But full statehood remains to be restored. This is the time and opportunity to push the planned and promised moves.

It is in the nature of the news cycle that the only aspect of the G20 event (Third Working Group on Tourism) in Srinagar that made serious headlines was the absence of China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Oman.

These abstentions are a bummer. But the larger outcome was significantly positive in political and strategic terms. That is easy and safe to deduce from the fact that 17 of the 20 G20 countries attended, including four of the P5, all of Europe and indeed, the largest Muslim nation, Indonesia.

That all of these shed the “disputed region” shibboleth on Jammu & Kashmir is a sizeable turning point in the fraught 75-year history of the region. This is progress, and we must savour it. But we also shouldn’t shy away from wading into some complexities and unfinished projects.

First the abstentions, the issues they underline and the reminders they serve about the unfinished “business” in Jammu & Kashmir. Even if we toss China and Turkey as the usual suspects, the absence of the three important Arab nations was a significant setback. Of course, only one of these, Saudi Arabia, is a G20 member. The other two are invitees.

This needs to be noted specially because Saudi Arabia and India have seen a warming up in the past 15 years that’s of epochal significance. The I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE, USA) grouping has come up in its neighbourhood, with its blessings. Oman has had the oldest friendly ties with India.

And silly Egypt? They don’t even have the pretence of being an Islamic state, even in the limited sense of what Erdoğan is turning Turkey into. Quite to the contrary, while Erdoğan has patronised the Muslim Brotherhood, Sisi has risen to dictatorial power by crushing them and their elected government.

India’s outreach to Cairo has been strong and aggressive — President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was the Republic Day chief guest this year. What, then, persuaded Egypt to more or less join the bandwagon of the delusional OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation) on Kashmir?

The Pakistanis were hard at work here. Their foreign minister, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, had boasted in Goa that there would be “significant abstentions” at the Srinagar event. Three Islamic nations staying out will only be a partial achievement for him because many others, including the UAE, attended.

The abstentions, however, served a purpose for Pakistan, and were a reminder to India. They did not use the words of the Chinese (“we do not go to events in disputed territories”), but conveyed the same message. That week before the fourth anniversary of the constitutional changes in Jammu & Kashmir, the issue is far from settled for a section of the world that matters for India. It’s also an instrument in the hands of China to triangulate India through Pakistan.

It was also a reminder that while much progress has been made, India would err by declaring victory too soon.