Wave breaking

Wave breaking

As reality bites, populist nationalism may hit its first big hurdles this year.

Having just entered 2019, a subtle shift is underway in global politics. The wave of populist nationalism that conquered much of the world in recent times seems to be encountering significant hurdles. Take President Donald Trump’s obsession with building a wall on US’s southern border with Mexico – a ‘Great Wall of America’ that can be seen as a metaphor for the desire to keep globalisation out. With Democrats now in control of the House of Representatives after last November’s Congressional elections, they are in no mood to authorise funding for Trump’s wall. This in turn has led to a government shutdown that looks set to become the longest in US history.

While Trump is taking the populist route and appealing to emotions by painting a gloomy picture of migrants, the other side is pushing back with equal vigour. Similarly, UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan appears to be in trouble. Few are happy with the current Brexit deal as the cost of exiting EU becomes clear – loss of business and influence on European policy. Populism has a reductive simplicity that is appealing to some, but it rarely takes into account practical complications and effects on the ground.

In India, the Modi wave is (or was) a complex phenomenon. While ethnically coloured populist nationalism – including the yearning for a ‘strong’ leader – played a significant role in it, the wave on which BJP powered its way to absolute majority in 2014 was strengthened by Modi’s appeal to aspirational sections of society as well, symbolised in slogans such as ‘acche din’ or ‘minimum government, maximum governance’. However, the aspirational elements in Modi’s appeal have been in abeyance since – significantly, no one in BJP mentions either ‘acche din’ or ‘minimum government, maximum governance’ these days – while the hard reality of populist policies like demonetisation is hitting home. With data showing the country lost 11 million jobs last year and cow politics adding to agrarian distress, BJP has lost its sheen of invincibility.

All of this goes to show that populism may be in vogue from time to time – especially during tough economic situations – but democracy has a way of levelling the field. Of course, this doesn’t apply to authoritarian regimes like China that don’t have an opposition. But with signs that China’s economy is slowing down, President Xi Jinping’s populist turn may hit roadblocks even there.