Unrelenting march ramp up testing medical staff hospital beds covid surge mustn’t overpower health systems

Unrelenting march ramp up testing medical staff hospital beds covid surge mustn’t overpower health systems

India has been recording higher coronavirus detections than the United States and Brazil in recent days. A record high 7.2 lakh tests were conducted on Saturday, a healthy sign that ICMR’s target of 10 lakh daily tests is fast achievable. Government has pegged the rising case count as a factor of increased testing. Officials expect this trend to continue for the next 45 days. If so, state governments must bolster hospital facilities anticipating a huge rise in hospital footfalls. Against 6 lakh confirmed cases on July 1, there are 23 lakh today, a fourfold rise. If this trend holds, India could log a crore or so detected infections by late September.

Sero survey results from Delhi and Mumbai reveal that the detected numbers are a huge underestimate. That is cause for both concern and relief. It is worrisome because the contagiousness puts vulnerable patients at high risk, yet offers much relief as most people recover from the infection asymptomatically. In this scenario, while governments may have limitations in curbing the virus, they must be ready to tackle big numbers. This leaves no alternative but testing, constantly scaled upwards, to spot positive cases, ensure home quarantine, and mark out patients for quick hospitalisation if need arises.

India’s fatality count has also shot up – over 1,000 deaths were reported on Sunday, even as case fatality rate has dipped, with improved treatment protocols. But treatment success is also contingent upon early detection, adequate number of oxygen-supplied beds, and medical personnel trained in critical care. If treatment becomes inaccessible, fatality rates will spike. A high burden of citizens with co-morbidities like diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, cancer and COPD, particularly vulnerable to Covid strikes, entails unceasing commitment towards masks, handwashing and testing as first lines of defence against Covid spread.

Testing remains contested despite its benefits. There is the unresolved technical controversy over low to moderate sensitivity of the popular rapid antigen test kits. Gujarat, Bengal, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Tamil Nadu haven’t ramped up testing over the last fortnight despite high positivity rates. Bihar and UP have finally scaled up tests after lagging for long. But the late response may have already exacerbated the situation for them. Getting oneself tested remains an arduous, risky process in many areas owing to long queues, inadequate testing facilities and local lockdowns. Fine tuning healthcare responses is critical to tide over the coming surge.