There is no deal on the ukraine war ‘until there is a deal’

There is no deal on the ukraine war ‘until there is a deal’

Trump’s call for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine marks a climbdown from his earlier demand for an immediate ceasefire; Moscow, on the other hand, has long maintained that it is willing to end the war only through a comprehensive peace deal addressing its key demands — Ukraine’s neutrality, ‘demilitarisation’, and recognition of the captured Ukrainian territory.

Before he met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump warned there would be “very serious consequences” if Russia did not end the Ukraine war. He offered Mr. Putin a warm welcome on the tarmac of the Elmendorf-Richardson joint military base in Anchorage, rolling out a red carpet as a B2 bomber, escorted by F-35 fighters, thundered over them. F-22 fifth gen stealth fighters on the ground formed a guard of honour. It was Mr. Putin’s first visit to American soil in a decade, and the first face-to-face meeting between the Russian leader and an American President since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022.

‘Fantastic relationship’

After nearly three hours of talks, Mr. Trump left for Washington without announcing any major breakthrough. “There’s no deal until there’s a deal,” he said. Mr. Trump said they agreed on “many points”, without offering any details. Mr. Putin repeated his standard line that the “root causes” of the conflict should be addressed. “I have a fantastic relationship with Vladimir,” Mr. Trump said, signalling that the two leaders would continue their face-to-face diplomacy. “Next time in Moscow,” Mr. Putin said, in English, when their brief joint media appearance came to an end. “Oooh, that’s an interesting one,” responded Mr. Trump, adding: “I don’t know, I will get a little heat on that one. But I could see it possibly happening.”

In an interview with Fox News following the summit, Mr. Trump seemed to pass the ball to Mr. Zelenskyy on ending the war. “Now it’s really up to President Zelenskyy to get it done.” When he was asked whether the U.S. would impose more sanctions on Russia, Mr. Trump said: “Well, because the meeting went so well, we don’t have to think about that now.”

Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin appeared to have discussed some broad framework for a peace agreement. Mr. Trump held long talks with Mr. Zelenskyy, European leaders as well as the NATO chief after his talks with Mr. Putin. In a social media post after the talks, Mr. Trump said, “It was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up”.

Mr. Trump’s call for a peace agreement marks a climbdown from his earlier demand for an immediate ceasefire — a position he had repeated even hours before meeting the Russian leader. The Russians, on the other side, have long maintained that they were willing to end the war only through a comprehensive peace deal. So it appears that Mr. Trump, after the Alaska talks, has shifted from pushing for a ceasefire, which is the Ukrainian demand, to endorsing a peace agreement, which is the Russian position.

This does not mean that an agreement is within reach. Moscow has clearly laid out its core demands for an agreement. Firstly, Ukraine must remain a neutral country (meaning, no NATO membership and no NATO troops on its territory); secondly, the five oblasts that Russia has annexed (Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson) must be formally recognised as part of the Russian Federation, and Western sanctions be lifted; third, Ukraine must be demilitarised. Ukraine, despite the battlefield setbacks, says it will not cede territory for peace. Europe fears that recognising a Russian victory would leave a stronger Moscow on their doorsteps, deepening their security challenges.

The Alaska summit could open a new era of engagement between Washington and Moscow after decades of hostility. But it is unclear how Mr. Trump would sell a peace agreement based on Russia’s core demands to Ukrainians and Europeans. Russia, which has made dramatic territorial gains in eastern Ukraine in recent days, faces no real pressure on the battlefield to make concessions.