Surviving covid 19

Surviving covid 19

Life as it was will have to change if the novel coronavirus is to be stopped.

By suspending most visas till April 15 to retard the Covid-19 outbreak that has now gripped much of western Europe, India has been forced into a desperate measure by a potentially calamitous situation, even as the WHO finally declared the outbreak a global pandemic. The fear is that the outbreak will take hold in India and overwhelm a stretched and poorly provisioned public health system. The emphasis now must be on social distancing and avoiding all unnecessary congregations of people. Concurrently, public health authorities must increase screening and testing and keep exhorting ordinary citizens to follow basic sanitary hygiene measures, like frequent washing of hands and seeking out medical advice if symptoms surface.

Italy has followed the Chinese example in Hubei province and ordered a national lockdown. Already many countries like the US, France, Iran, Spain and Germany have more cases than when China locked down Hubei on January 23 and must bite the bullet. Economic costs may appear forbidding but still pale before the worst case scenarios: Angela Merkel has warned that two in three Germans could get infected. Kerala, perhaps India’s most globalised state, has initiated a partial shutdown encompassing educational institutions and cinema halls, and cancelled all public events. Delhi is also following suit. Social distancing, howsoever abhorrent, restricts virus spread and will buy time for health systems to cope with patient load.

More extreme forms of social distancing will require religious congregations to grind to a halt and companies to adopt workfrom-home policies. Till the viral threat subsides, state governments and local bodies must plan and prepare for a surge in infections. Recursive activities like screening and testing of vulnerable persons, tracing of patients’ contacts, and monitoring of home quarantined individuals are critical to India preventing a large-scale outbreak. Bureaucratic sloth cannot be ruled out here and leadership roles must be well defined to keep foot soldiers focussed and motivated.

Yet another challenge for government is to stimulate the economy. The oil price crash offers sufficient cushion to permit fuel prices to fall steeply, which can counter the expected demand shock and boost business sentiment. A reforms push can create ground for a recovery when the Covid-19 threat recedes. A demonetisation-like shock caused by reduced economic activity looks inevitable. But with the limited time at hand we need to prepare both for crisis and recovery.