Spirited fight bihar witnessed a see sawing election with economic recession squared off against “jungle raj”

Spirited fight bihar witnessed a see sawing election with economic recession squared off against “jungle raj”

While the Bihar assembly elections are going down to the wire, NDA holds the advantage at the time this goes into print, with BJP in the driver’s seat. If NDA comes through then the alliance, especially BJP, would have overcome heavy odds posed by economic distress in the Covid pandemic’s wake and significant disruption in the lives of migrant workers, whose earnings matter greatly for the local economy. Tejashwi Yadav’s spunky attempt to conjure a backlash over jobs would have come to nought, with RJD stuck near its 2015 tally. Exit polls would have been proven wrong, despite capturing chief minister Nitish Kumar’s flagging popularity.

Thus, despite contesting 115 seats each, BJP’s 19.5% vote share translated into nearly 70 seats while JD(U)’s 15% left it trailing far behind. The 5.6% vote share notched by Chirag Paswan’s LJP, contesting against JD(U) candidates while sparing BJP, also made a difference. With the upper hand, BJP central leadership’s promise to make Nitish CM could upset local leaders. On the other hand a defection by Nitish, like that by Uddhav Thackeray, could dent BJP’s gains. But after the failed mahagathbandhan experiment from 2015 to 2017, Nitish may not travel down that path again.

The collective memory of “jungle raj” among voters continues to hobble RJD. Despite not delivering jobs or economic growth, the BJP-JD(U) combine elicits strong associations with rule of law, which could have influenced women whose turnout outnumbered men: 59.7% to 54.6%. The 1.1 crore “functional” household tap connections added in Bihar under Centre’s Jal Jeevan scheme, taking tap coverage from 1.6% to 56.6% in just a year, may have mattered too. Much like the Ujjwala LPG connection scheme which worked wonders for BJP in 2019, household taps spare women the horrors of backbreaking walks to fetch water.

Tejashwi’s felicity as a campaigner was eclipsed by RJD and Congress’s poor seat conversion. Congress turned out to be the mahagathbandhan’s weak underbelly. In contrast, BJP even lifted the lightweight Vikassheel Insaan Party to respectability. In a campaign premised around jobs – BJP promising 19 lakh jobs against RJD’s 10 lakh – the winner must deliver lest the electorate changes its mind, especially in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. BJP, therefore, must push economic reforms. GDP growth will create jobs and counter the external security threat posed by China.