Some good news on the population front

Some good news on the population front

Indian families are opting to have fewer children, but the ratio of girls to boys born has deteriorated. This, in short, is the message from Sample Registration System (SRS) numbers for 2017, published by the Registrar General of India. The total fertility rate (TFR), the number of children each mother is likely to have, has fallen to 2.2 from 2.3, and is well on course to dip below 2.1, the replacement level. It debunks neo-Malthusian scenarios of populations growing relentlessly till famine, starvation and strife restore the balance. Population growth tapers off with increased literacy, access to contraception, and social and economic progress.

Unsurprisingly, the five southern states have TFRs below the national average, in the 1.5 to 1.7 range. Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, West Bengal, Uttarakhand and Odisha, with some social and economic mobility, are also below the pan-India average. The worst performer is Bihar, historically a laggard in every development criterion. Earlier, data released by the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) showed that the TFR for Muslim mothers has dropped more sharply than for Hindus. The gap between the two communities’ TFR has narrowed from 30.8% in 2005-06 to 23.8% in 2015-16. Overall SRS numbers seem to support this: states with large Muslim populations like J&K and West Bengal have among the lowest TFRs pan-India. Bangladesh’s TFR is already below 2.1. Those who fret about Hindus being swamped by Muslims can sleep in peace.

However, between 2014-16 and 2015-17, India’s sex ratio, the number of females per 1,000 males, worsened from 898 to 896. We continue to privilege male births over females, a preference that continues through generations. These biases have deep social and economic roots and need reform beyond slogans.