Seesaw state

Seesaw state

After defeating the chronically unstable Congress-JD(S) alliance, BJP faces a tough challenge.

The HD Kumaraswamy government finally collapsed under the weight of its contradictions, and few in Karnataka will be sorry to see it go. Through its 14 months in power, the Congress-JD(S) alliance was in perpetual turmoil, unable to keep its senior leaders or its MLAs in check, with Kumaraswamy frequently bemoaning his plight at the head of the unwieldy coalition. With both parties viewing the state’s Old Mysuru region as their bastion, this was an incompatible and uneasy partnership from the start.

A number of senior Congress leaders who enjoyed plum ministerial berths in the previous Siddaramaiah government had to be left out of the Cabinet. Siddaramaiah himself could not make peace with his sudden loss of pre-eminence in Congress and has been blamed for fanning dissidence against the government. Yet Congress’s national compulsions took precedence over local disenchantment. Ultimately, the 2019 general election results helped catalyse the logical end. Congress-JD(S) calculations of consolidating the anti-BJP vote were swept away by another gigantic Modi wave producing BJP’s best ever performance in Karnataka.

Only one Congress and JD(S) candidate each could withstand the BJP juggernaut that won 25 of the state’s 28 seats with a phenomenal 51.4% vote share. But in the assembly BJP will be saddled with the hung verdict from 2018. Arguably, the party may be better off seeking a fresh mandate but the vote for Prime Minister Narendra Modi may not repeat in a state-level election. Governing with a wafer-thin majority will be a challenge. Assembly bypolls – if the rebel MLAs are disqualified or their resignations are accepted – will become crucial. BS Yeddyurappa, at 76, has crossed BJP’s informal age norms on retirement from elected office but is no pushover and remains a most formidable politician.

Undoubtedly, the balance tilted against Congress-JD(S) with considerable central support. BJP’s inorganic growth by poaching opposition leaders has come into particular focus in Karnataka. If outsiders get plum posts as has happened in Goa, it could demoralise the party faithful and create new factions over time. Recall that though Yeddyurappa’s Operation Kamala in 2008 to engineer defections succeeded, he and BJP were soon engulfed in corruption taint and factionalism. However, drafting leaders like Himanta Biswa Sarma and Mukul Roy has helped BJP take the fast lane to growth. Political compulsions place a low premium on morality but ultimately governance matters. Karnataka’s voters have been put through a lot in 14 months. Yet it’s doubtful whether sanity and stability can return soon.