Russian roulette putin breaks global norms but economic costs of any further escalation will be big for everyone

Russian roulette putin breaks global norms but economic costs of any further escalation will be big for everyone

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to recognise the independence of two separatist areas of Ukraine’s eastern Donbass region – Donetsk and Luhansk – has ratcheted up tensions in Europe and set a dangerous precedent. Russian-speaking Donetsk and Luhansk have been under de facto separatist control since 2014 when conflict in the Donbass first erupted. But with his latest move and by ordering Russian troops into Donbass for “peace-keeping”, Putin has thrown down another gauntlet. The US and EU have responded with targeted sanctions, focussing on the two Ukraine areas and Russian officials. Germany has halted the certification process of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that would have doubled Russian gas exports to Berlin.

But indications are that the West may be willing to live with Russia’s de facto annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk. After all, the Ukrainian government had itself declared the two areas as occupied. And targeted sanctions would serve as a face-saver for Nato while not bludgeoning the Russian economy altogether. This is a delicate balance. What if Putin is emboldened to further salami-slice? But, even then, holding off now on further actions and sanctions is in everyone’s interest. A return to a Cold-War-like situation doesn’t help Europe, as it will disrupt energy supplies and economic activity. If the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is junked altogether, EU would need to find alternative sources to meet its energy needs. Escalation doesn’t help the rest of the world as oil prices are already touching $100, and most major economies, India included, are facing high inflation and national economies are just about recovering from the pandemic.

Obviously, reducing the trust deficit between the US-led West and Russia is the only way to ensure Moscow doesn’t manufacture crises in the future to further its strategic goals. But the two sides remain too far apart today. The US is unlikely to accept Russia’s not entirely invalid point that Nato expansion threatens its security.

For India, with historical ties with Russia and growing ties with the US and facing a huge threat from China, it’s a tough spot to be in. Hitherto New Delhi has rightly taken a neutral approach to the Ukraine crisis. But should Russia escalate things further, it would test India’s sacrosanct position on championing national territorial integrity. Can you stay neutral on Russia going further into Ukraine if you want the world to be with you on China’s expansionism? New Delhi will be hoping hard that there’s no escalation.