Ride into the storm

Ride into the storm

Washington mavens (विशेषज्ञ) have a new parlour game ¬ called “impeachment (अभियोग) & removal”. The game is all about devising (यत्न करना) new and innovative ways of putting President Donald Trump out to grass. But Trump has danced with Saudi leaders, eaten chocolate cake with Xi Jinping and burgers with Netanyahu, played golf with Abe and been blessed by the Pope.In a few weeks, it will be his turn to get the Modi hug.
India has watched with apprehension as the Trump administration moved from being a promising tabula rasa (an absence of preconceived ideas or predetermined goals) to the OMG-what-will-they-do-next roller coaster.
The China relationship is ... now where is it exactly? The chocolate cake came with 59 missiles to Syria; overnight Xi Jinping found himself holding the North Korean nuclear can, fearfully contemplating (विचार करना/चिन्तन करना) a THAAD system in South Korea when he has more important things like the 19th Party Congress on his mind. But for the master of the art of the deal, the Chinese can cut a good one, even of the G-2 variety.
India has to keep a keen eye out, while recalibrating its own approach to the US. It used to be argued that the US should look at India strategically, not tactically, long term, not short term. Remove that book from your device. Tactic is in, instant gratification (तुष्टि) on a strategic scale is also in. Deal with it.
After last week, it's fairly clear Trump's bold foreign policy is kind of old ¬ he went right back to selling weapons to Saudi Arabia and bashing Iran, making certain the sectarian war in the Middle East will never end. The hoped-for Russia reset is now a nightmare, threatening to sink Trump tower. US is taking the trodden path of accommodating China and constraining Russia.
Is there energy in DC for India? New Delhi, as Brookings' Martin Indyk pointed out last week, “does not quite figure high on Trump's radar, which is not a bad thing.” India has a trade surplus with the US, but we're way down at ninth position, not worthy of notice. Again, not a bad thing.
Questions have been asked about whether Modi should be riding into this storm now, or wait for it to blow over. On balance, it makes sense for Modi to go now. A summit visit is also an opportunity to set the record straight with a new administration and decide whether to play a defensive game and protect Indian interests, or be a Virat Kohli and push them.
This is not just any Republican administration, it actually does not have many of the Republican brains we know. Most are “never Trump”-ers, and thus out of government. Both White House and State Department are being populated by rookies (नौसिखिया) many of whom can just about point India on the map. Lisa Curtis, from conservative thinktank Heritage Foundation, is the senior most official with India knowledge in the NSC. That's a relief, but not enough, particularly since Trump has not yet appointed an ambassador to India. Modi's visit in some ways, will be India 101 for the foot soldiers, probably necessary in the longer run.
India has huge defence and security stakes with the US. Both aspects ¬ procurement (सरकारी खरीद/अधिप्राप्ति) as well as strategic convergences ¬ are likely to do well in Trump-land. It was significant that Trump mentioned India but not Pakistan as “victim” of terrorism in his speech in Riyadh, and refrained (दूर रहना/अलग होना) from a bilateral meeting with Nawaz.
On Afghanistan the US is taking a more sensible position, committing more security assistance, while showing they know Pakistan is the problem. A top US general warned Pakistan in an open Senate hearing that harbouring Haqqani network and other terror organisations will no longer get a US wink. At the same time, US announced it would convert military aid into military loans, something that will hit Pakistan hard.
Defence purchases by India fall into a completely different box. All indications are that these will flourish under Trump who is fixated (निश्चय करना/दृढ़ होना) on creating US jobs and promoting old economy industries. But it also means Lockheed Martin may no longer offer to build F-16s in India. Can Modi prevent Make in India from bumping up against Make in America?
The US decision to tighten the H-1B system could be exploited by India inviting US tech companies to set up home in India. Separately, Indian companies have a unique opportunity to go beyond declaring 10,000 American jobs ¬ lobby on the Hill, engage with local communities, etc.
As with previous administrations, India will run into problems on the economy ¬ while India could qualify as “open” for foreign investment, this government has the same protectionist instincts that it rails against, on trade.
There are promising notes ¬ like the recent budget proposal on the New Silk Road with India as a player opens new opportunities for India to counter OBOR. It promises a new chapter on the 2015 India-US strategic vision document, and will be watched during the summit.
Howard Stern, Trump's friend, says Trump “wants to be loved. It's important for him.” The Chinese, Japanese and Saudis showed they could game Trump with their deep pockets. Modi doesn't play golf nor will he share a steak, so India will have to find another connection point. There could be one.
A few weeks ago, as HR McMaster got up to leave after meeting Modi, PM said to him, “A man with lines across his forehead used to be regarded in olden times as someone with spiritual power.”
McMaster touched his forehead and bowed deeply, struck by an indefinable emotion. Who knows, ancient India could come to the rescue again.