On the rebound

On the rebound

A marriage between SP and BSP could reshape heartland politics in India.

BSP supremo Mayawati has all but confirmed she will ally with SP in the next general elections. Her statement indicates that the two parties, allies between 1993 and 1995 before a bitter fallout, will shortly embark on seat sharing negotiations. If those negotiations are fruitful they could herald a transformation of India’s political landscape triggered by BJP’s current domination of national politics. They would also overturn tenets about a SP-BSP alliance being untenable as they rely on mutually antagonistic support bases of intermediate castes and Dalits.

BJP is likely to view the new developments with apprehension. Winning 71seats in Uttar Pradesh powered the party to 282 and simple majority in the 16th Lok Sabha. Electoral arithmetic from 2017 assembly elections, which BJP won conclusively, pointed to a different outcome if SP and BSP had allied. Mayawati has already demonstrated this arithmetic can translate to votes by not fielding BSP candidates in Gorakhpur and Phulpur, paving the way for SP victories. Political survival now demands that they stick together. But Mayawati’s unpredictable ways will make it a tightrope walk for Akhilesh Yadav.

In 2016, before partnering with Congress, Akhilesh had broached the possibility of a tie-up but Mayawati who was assiduously wooing Muslims at that time and eyeing a strong comeback spurned the offer. Ultimately both parties ended up splitting the Muslim vote and were restricted to their respective Yadav and Jatav bases – while BJP gained from consolidation of the “Hindu” vote. Now the politics of polarisation can be expected to switch to higher gear. Moreover the Mayawati-Akhilesh alliance could run into speedbreakers like CBI investigations, also a time tested central government tactic to keep political foes in line.

CBI has begun probing corruption in the disinvestment of 21 state-owned sugar mills in 2010-11 during Mayawati’s tenure. But with the agency’s credibility at an all-time low and elections approaching, opposition politicians could pitch these as witch hunts and gain voter sympathy. With no visible wave as in 2014 and the burden of anti-incumbency BJP has to make sure it does not become a victim of its own success. Those uniting against it have their internal contradictions too. Exploiting them and painting opposition alliances as unstable opportunistic coalitions will likely become Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s major battle cry as he heads into general elections, perhaps as early as by the end of this year.