Monsoon misery delayed withdrawal of rains is likely to cause a spike in food inflation

Monsoon misery delayed withdrawal of rains is likely to cause a spike in food inflation

Policymakers need to plan for extreme weather events becoming par for the course. It calls for investing more in climate-smart plant breeding, agro-meteorological forecasting and digital-enabled farm extension.

La Niña — an unusual cooling of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean waters — played havoc with India’s kharif crop last year, bringing torrential rain just before or during harvesting time. The country registered five consecutive months of excess rainfall from September to January, which hit the soyabean, cotton, pulses, tomatoes, onions and a host of other vegetables that were ready to be picked. La Niña casting its long shadow hasn’t been ruled out this time too, with most global weather agencies predicting the continuation of the current event at least till December. That would make this particular episode, which began in September 2020, one of the longest ever spanning three winters. The southwest monsoon’s slow withdrawal and the heavy showers over Northwest India during the last week are ominous signs; one can only hope that the “triple drip” La Niña is on its last legs and there’s no repeat of last year.

On the whole, this hasn’t been the best of the monsoons, despite overall rainfall during the four-month season from June being 7 per cent above its long-period average so far. The reason is its not-so-good distribution. Rains have been deficient across the Gangetic plains, from Uttar Pradesh to West Bengal. It has affected the area planted under rice — in a belt that is a large producer as well as consumer of the cereal. On the other side, excess rainfall in much of western, central and even southern India has led to crop inundation, though the damage is not on the scale of last year’s. Most parts of the country also got very little rain in June, resulting in delayed sowing. And the recent downpour in Haryana, Punjab and western UP isn’t going to help the standing paddy whose grains have already matured. A clear picture of the kharif harvest will emerge over the next month or so.

For the government and the RBI, the situation presents a challenge, particularly from a food inflation standpoint. But it shouldn’t stop at that. 2021-22 was an extraordinary year where both the kharif and rabi (specifically wheat) crops suffered setbacks — the first from too much rain during September-January and the second from the heatwave in March-April. Policymakers need to plan for extreme weather events becoming par for the course. It calls for investing more in climate-smart plant breeding, agro- meteorological forecasting and digital-enabled farm extension.