Modi vs rest

Modi vs rest

Opposition shows up for Kumaraswamy’s swearing in, but can they set aside their contradictions?

Signs of a combined opposition front to take on BJP became visible at JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy’s swearing-in ceremony, amid a display of camaraderie clearly meant for public consumption. While these leaders sporadically called for broad opposition unity, the Karnataka experiment where Congress surrendered the chief ministerial berth to prevent BJP forming the government clearly made an impression on opposition parties and catalysed Wednesday’s visual spectacle. Parallels will be drawn to the formation of Janata Party in 1977, National Front in 1989 and United Front in 1996.

But these were ultimately failed attempts though they succeeded in the immediate aim of government formation. So while the optics of opposition leaders and chief ministers from many parties and states embracing and holding hands is a headline grabbing moment, the warm vibes will be tested when they get down to business. Already, Congress strongman DK Shivakumar is sulking over non-accommodation in Karnataka’s new arrangements. For Congress, its much touted generational change may have to wait going by the ease with which former president Sonia Gandhi held centre stage and demonstrated her rapport with other opposition leaders.

Rahul Gandhi’s desire to rebuild Congress runs counter to the calculations of regional parties which want the grand old party to cede more space. Such contradictions will play into the BJP narrative that any non-BJP front would be an inherently unstable ragtag coalition. Congress-JD(S) alliance in Karnataka will be a test case for providing good governance and stability. The electoral arithmetic of a non-BJP front will be tested in UP’s Kairana bypoll where SP, BSP and Congress are supporting an RLD candidate against BJP. In two bypolls in Maharashtra, NCP and Congress have revived their alliance even as the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance ran into rough weather.

The glue holding together a disparate group of opposition parties is the old “enemy of an enemy is a friend” principle; they are all opposed to BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Looking forward to the next general elections, even if this group can arrive at seat sharing arrangements among themselves, they will need to ride on high levels of anti-incumbency to dethrone NDA with a purely negative message. The moot point, then, is whether levels of anti-incumbency in the country are as high now as they were in 1977, after the Emergency, or in 1989. It will take a lot to satisfy all those criteria.