Making sense of imran’s victory implications for india

Making sense of imran’s victory implications for india

Electoral management in Pakistan has a few peculiarities (A strange or unusual feature or habit) and three stand out. First is an interim government, installed prior to elections to ensure free and fair elections. The practice is followed in many countries like Australia, New Zealand and Bangladesh. The caretaker PM is finalised in consultation with the opposition. Similar arrangements exist at the state level. Also, unlike India, Pakistan is still following the general election system with one nation, one poll. This is a system we need to go back to, ridding the country of ‘Permanently in Poll Mode’ (PPM) syndrome, leading to paralysis in governance. CEC’s recent suggestion of ‘one year-one poll’, wherein all elections due in year are grouped in one window is worth considering as it can mitigate the PPM malaise (A general feeling of discomfort, illness, or unease whose exact cause is difficult to identify.) to some extent.

The third peculiarity is urgency to count votes and declare results with the process starting immediately after polling. In a highly vitiated atmosphere, this useful practice seems to have gone horribly wrong, with many results, including some involving Imran, getting inordinately delayed. We need to expedite the process of counting as our current system of deferred counting leads to unnecessary speculation (The activity of guessing possible answers to a question without having enough information to be certain) and allegations.

There were a few rumours about the possibility of PM Narendra Modi type of swearing-in ceremony but a marginal and questionable mandate hardly justifies such a launch. It will be pragmatic that a jamboree of collecting cricketers for swearing-in and presentation of cricket bat by Indian high commissioner are relegated to outfield and new PM takes guard to sort out the economy and other serious issues on front foot.

While former Indian CEC has given thumbs up to elections, other international observers have raised serious questions. The supreme court has passed severe strictures on the conduct of Pak CEC. Constitutional safeguards notwithstanding, establishment hijacked the entire exercise, earning dubious nicknames like Khalai Makhalook (aliens) and umpires. Elections were manipulated in the run-up to polls by the military-judiciary nexus. Even NSA was summarily dismissed by the caretaker regime as he didn’t enjoy Gen Bajwa’s confidence.

Decoding the electoral verdict is a complex exercise but it certainly was a missed opportunity as the Pak populace could have delivered, ‘Back to Barracks’ message to generals by ignoring Khaki diktat and voting for Nawaz Sharif’s PML(N). Bangladesh was created due to historic mandate to Awami League defying Yahya Khan. Army has succeeded in marginalising main parties like PML, PPP, AWP and discrediting MQM. By sanitising Karachi of MQM, 20 odd seats were literally gifted to Imran Khan’s PTI. Prima-facie, fundamentalist parties have failed to make headway but Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan (TLP) has got mainstreamed by making inroads in Sindh provincial assembly by winning two seats. TLP polled sizeable 2.23 million votes in national assembly and 2.38 million in provincial polls. Khadim Rizvi’s TLP is long term problem and will continue to haunt Pakistan.

Many are describing it as a mandate for ‘Naya Pakistan’, which is-‘Acche Din’ combined with anti-corruption, ‘Jhadu’ drive. Despite having been in politics for 22 years, Imran is identified as a clean politician with a flair for health-related charities. The current dismal state of the economy is a sure dampener for his vision of Islamic welfare state. The other promise of getting black money back is not likely to be easy as most business magnates are linked with generals and their foundations. The performance of the new government will be watched closely, slip-ups have dangerous consequence of reviving latent anger against his party for managing, what in rural Punjab is being referred to as ‘stolen victory’.

The social media is abuzz with educational profiles of likely cabinet members but inclusion of known India baiters (A person who causes repeated emotional pain, distress, or annoyance to another.) like Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Shireen Mazari is indeed worrying and it is hoped that with new responsibilities, they will add objectivity to their qualifications. The real tests for Imran will be to live down his pro-Taliban image and not ruffle Punjabi feathers for they are not used to being ruled by others.

Unfortunately, the mandate is so marginal that it will keep the new government dependent on the Army. Did the common man fail Imran by playing that tentative defensive stroke even when a ‘six’ was for asking? If they really wanted change, they should have been more decisive and given him some autonomy.

Generals, the ultimate umpires, seem to have managed to keep him under check. They could not afford to ignore the recent unpleasant experience of dealing with a defiant and over confident Nawaz lzull by decisive majority.

Any change in Pakistan invariably leads to irrational optimism and yearning (A feeling of intense longing for something) for thaw by ‘Aman Asha’ activists. Driven by our desire to see goodness in others, we had even seen hope in Gen Bajwa, merely because he had served under an Indian General. The latest is hype being attached to Imran wanting to take two steps, for every step taken by us but let us not forget that nod has to come from Pindi and Generals seem to be sticking to their agenda, enough indication of this was given in his address.

The new regime is entitled to ‘honey moon’ grace period and while Khan gets through the opening overs, it will be pragmatic to keep our expectations low yet remain engaged with new regime. In fact, more channels like ‘Track Two’ should be explored. The real run chase for peace may have to wait till after Indian parliamentary elections and concurrence of Generals.