Karnataka conundrum

Karnataka conundrum

BJP pushes hard, Congress firefights, ally JD(S) watches from sidelines.

The shaky Congress-JD(S) government has hit a fresh patch of turbulence with BJP making yet another attempt to unseat the alliance. Ironically, BJP has moved its own MLAs to a safe haven in Gurgaon to forestall Congress countermoves. Getting 10-13 legislators to defect or resign so that BJP gets the upper hand in the assembly is a reasonably tall order. But with general election approaching, the failure of a ruling opposition coalition would play perfectly into BJP’s narrative that gathbandhans are bywords for unstable governance.

However, means are as important as ends to drive home this point. Horse trading is no substitute for an alliance that collapses under the weight of its own contradictions – as had happened to the Janata Party, National Front, United Front, or more recently the Bihar mahagathbandhan. By trying to woo Congress MLAs, BJP’s shenanigans may repel voters – which could hurt the party in forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. To make matters difficult, the arithmetic of the Congress-JD(S) alliance forestalls a repeat of the party’s 2014 performance during the Modi wave.

While it suits BJP to see Congress and JD(S) constantly bickering – the latest flashpoint being the sharing of seats for LS polls – poaching attempts may end up bringing Congress and JD(S) closer. Already, BJP has lost a few bypolls to the alliance. Congress has to save the government and keep HD Kumaraswamy in the CM’s chair if it wants to prevent division of opposition votes in LS polls. But sharing the spoils with JD(S) has shrunk the pie for the multiple Congress factions, to the chagrin of their MLAs. Even as Congress and BJP slug it out, CM Kumaraswamy might just be wondering how much longer his luck will hold.