Johnson’s ‘coup’

Johnson’s ‘coup’

British PM’s brinkmanship over Brexit adds to global uncertainty
The United Kingdom has an enviable reputation for political stability and consensus-driven governance. But Prime Minister Boris Johnson appeared to break with that tradition when he suspended Parliament in the crucial weeks leading up to the October 31 deadline for Brexit. Opposition lawmakers have been up in arms and protests have taken place in the streets against what is being perceived as a coup on British democracy. Many believe this is part of Johnson’s negotiating strategy to get a better withdrawal deal from EU. But the brinkmanship could have huge costs for British polity where trust is an important factor in the absence of a codified Constitution.

That said, it is also true that the Brexit process has dragged on and much confusion still remains. Johnson’s predecessor Theresa May’s withdrawal deal with EU was voted down thrice by Parliament. The latter, however, also voted against a no-deal Brexit as this would cause much chaos for people and British businesses. Then there is the issue of the Irish backstop, a provision of the current withdrawal agreement that is aimed at preventing a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. The backstop kicks in if at the end of the transition period till December 2022, the UK and EU fail to negotiate a post-Brexit permanent trade deal that keeps the Irish border open. This would entail the UK entering a temporary single customs territory with EU and Northern Ireland would stay aligned to EU single market rules.

That is unacceptable to Johnson. But having a hard Irish border is also problematic given Northern Ireland’s violent history. And a no-deal Brexit would make a hard border inevitable. Thus, in order to get a better deal from EU Johnson appears to be willing to press the no-deal nuclear option. But in a world already buffeted by protectionist headwinds and other forms of geopolitical friction, chaos between UK and EU is the last thing one needs.