Jo jeeta woh karnataka

Jo jeeta woh karnataka

Three state leaders have much to gain, but more to lose at the polls.

As much as we build scenarios around the Karnataka elections and their implication for national politics, the truth is that the stakes are the highest for three regional leaders regardless of who is supporting them and how. Be it chief minister Siddaramaiah, former PM and Janata Dal (Secular) stalwart H D Deve Gowda or BJP’s local face and former CM B S Yeddyurappa, the consequences of defeat have far bigger ramifications (The possible result of a decision or action) for them than victory.

Each of these leaders is also carrying the additional burden of a larger national expectation. This further raises the stakes and with that, the cost of failure.

First, Siddaramaiah. Incumbents have generally had it tough in the last few years. There are only a handful of exceptions like Naveen Patnaik, Mamata Banerjee and, possibly, Nitish Kumar who fought the elections with one partner but run the government with another.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself managed to pull of an incredible fifth-term win for BJP in Gujarat. But still, the party is bracing for a spate of tough elections with incumbent CMs in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

Congress, on the other hand, has lost almost everything, and won just Punjab. So, it’s almost as if Siddaramaiah, who joined the Grand Old Party from JD(S) in 2012, carries the burden of resurrecting a crumbling edifice (A system that has been established for a long time/ an impressive building.) by retaining power. And that’s just one side of the challenge.

On the ground, he’s battling his own political mentor Deve Gowda to claim the JD(S) legacy, especially in the old Mysore area. Which is why he is contesting from Chamundeshwari, a JD(S) stronghold, while at the same time, taking on the BJP in the north from Badami. And if that was not enough, he has also taken the responsibility of launching his younger son into politics from his own safe seat of Varuna.

The Karnataka CM has gone all out, knowing well that this is when he can fully stretch the Congress ‘high command’ in his favour. A defeat would allow old stalwarts of Karnataka Congress to reclaim what they so grudgingly conceded to an ‘outsider’.

Sonrise in the South

When Siddaramaiah’s older son died, Deve Gowda set aside his differences and went to his old friend’s house to console him. Gowda had then said that Siddaramaiah must now concentrate on the future of his younger son. Last week, the former PM told ET that in all probability, he inadvertently (Without knowledge or intention) gave the idea to Siddaramaiah to field his son in these elections.

Deve Gowda now has to look out for his own son H D Kumaraswamy. Both father and son are well aware that the relevance of being a mere ‘kingmaker’ may be useful but shortlived, and is likely to damage the party further — just as Congress had broken JD(S) with the help of Siddaramaiah.

Put simply, this is a fight for Deve Gowda’s relevance. A good show will boost him nationally, within the federal front combine being championed by Banerjee. This was one of the reasons he probably stitched an alliance with BSP leader Mayawati, who did have a paltry presence in the state.

Banerjee has been in touch with him. When Deve Gowda was hurt by Rahul Gandhi’s public description of his party as ‘Janata Dal Sangh Parivar’, the West Bengal CM is believed to have called him up to assure him that she would take up the matter with Congress to ensure Gandhi doesn’t humiliate or question Deve Gowda’s secular credentials again.

He believes she helped. More importantly, he knows that a good show at the hustings may unexpectedly provide him some national relevance. A defeat, however, could be debilitating for JD(S). It would mean the pendulum of his party’s vote base has swung decisively towards Siddaramaiah, pointing to an existential crisis for the party and its family leadership.

Yeddyurappa was among the few estranged BJP leaders to come out in support of Modi when his candidature for PM was floated within the BJP ahead of the 2014 general elections. He is now back as BJP’s chief ministerial face, thus allowing a reunification of the party’s splinter groups.

The arithmetic is simple. BJP polled close to 20% in 2013, while Yeddyurappa’s Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP) secured around 10%. Add the 2% with 2.7% of Badavara Shramikara Raithara (BSR) Congress, now merged with BJP, and it stacks up well on paper.

Yeddyurappa, however, has to pull the crew together and poll the numbers on the ground to tally the arithmetic. More importantly, he has to deliver the state for 2019. His target is ‘minimum 25’, a number he voices even before mentioning his expectations from the assembly elections.

Heads They Win, Tails I Lose

A poor showing would mean he would probably have to step aside for someone else to work that target out. Unlike Congress, it’s already clear that for BJP, the credit of a win will largely go to the PM and the central leadership. A defeat, however, can taint Yeddyurappa as the weak link.

In other words, the win-loss scenarios are quite stark for all the three. But with each of them firmly positioned, the players on the national stage are somewhat better poised (Showing very calm and controlled behaviour) to steer past an unfavourable outcome while getting fully warmed up for 2019.