Jharkhand next

Jharkhand next

If a potential Congress-JMM alliance gets going, BJP has a keen fight on its hands.

Opposition parties, sniffing a revival after being five months down in the dumps following the Lok Sabha poll rout, have a good opportunity in the upcoming Jharkhand assembly elections to pose a stern test for BJP. In Jharkhand, BJP had polled 51.16% of the vote in the LS polls and won 11 of 14 seats. But the ruling party would now recognise that state elections are a different ball game. Despite being the first chief minister in the state’s turbulent history to complete a five-year term, it remains to be seen if incumbent CM Raghubar Das can spin the political stability to BJP’s advantage.

Public memory is short and the Adivasi ire against his government’s attempts to amend tenancy acts and relax land acquisition norms, followed by the iron hand with which the Pathalgadi rebellion was stamped out last year, remains a major talking point. Jharkhand has also figured high in the hate crime graph; several lynching incidents continue to be reported from the state. With Adivasis forming 26% of the population and Muslims nearly 14%, this could potentially become a solid bloc hindering Das’s reelection prospects. But as was seen in Uttar Pradesh, BJP has also tended to benefit from reverse polarisation when backward groups unite. Kurmis, a dominant local community to which testy BJP ally and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar belongs, will become critical in this scenario.

The chinks in the Congress-JMM relationship will be BJP’s best bet to trump anti-incumbency. Factionalism and overlapping pockets of influence have marred seat sharing attempts by the two parties in the past. Following the LS elections, then Jharkhand Congress chief Ajoy Kumar had quit in disgust, claiming attempts of senior Congress leaders to undermine the alliance. Ironing out these differences will be critical to an improved UPA showing.

BJP has its share of worries too. Just before the Maharashtra-Haryana results, a complacent BJP inducted a clutch of turncoat Congress-JMM legislators. But the fate of NCP-Congress deserters in Maharashtra has forced a rethink on the utility of such strategies that create disenchantment among BJP old timers. After an initial push, BJP has held back the divisive NRC rhetoric. A history of violence around the tribal-outsider divide makes NRC in Jharkhand a double-edged sword, not necessarily cutting along anti-Muslim lines. With elections staggered over 21 days and five phases, Jharkhand promises an engaging contest.