Jawans josh & jobs short term soldiers will reduce army pension bill but they may strain anaemic job markets further

Jawans josh & jobs short term soldiers will reduce army pension bill but they may strain anaemic job markets further

GoI’s new army recruitment policy – a 75:25 ratio determining how many new soldiers are let go and how many retained after 4 years – makes fiscal sense. Defence salary and pension bills account for roughly half of the annual defence budget of Rs 5.2 lakh crore. Bear in mind that roughly 80% of service personnel in the US retire without a pension. Also, China did much more over the last 8 years, pruning its land-based army by 50% while boosting its navy and air force. PLA retrenched 3 lakh troops. By these metrics, India’s recruitment reform is not radical. And given how much Chinese defence has modernised, India will need more than what it saves from rationalised recruitment. But will the new scheme affect the army as a fighting force?

Many retired army generals have raised important questions on whether the new recruitment plan will strain existing training resources and produce a quality problem, and whether at unit levels, the mix of long-term and short-term soldiers will skew in favour of the latter and affect battle readiness. For example, Lieutenant General PR Shankar, who served as Director General of Artillery, argued in a media commentary that post-Agniveer, subunits may not have enough experienced soldiers who can be NCOs. In contrast, our columnist today, Lt Gen JS Sandhu, who served in Kashmir, argues that if unit commanders can manage soldiers’ morale, the new recruitment scheme won’t affect the army’s fighting spirit. Some of these answers will only be known years down the line. But GoI should keep a close look on whether and how the change is affecting ground realities.

The other issue is, of course, what will thousands of young Indians released annually after 4 years of army service do? The partly contributory severance package for Agniveers is just over Rs 11 lakh. This can be a good cushion to start life in the civvy street – provided the civvy street is offering plenty of employment. But the plain fact is that the world’s fifth largest and fastest growing economy is doing an awful job of creating jobs. That labour force participation is itself falling shows how the young view the labour market. Massive and better-targeted welfare schemes have probably put a lid on what would otherwise be noticeable social unrest. But this is an unsustainable model. Agniveers are another reminder to GoI.