Jai which kisan protests by big farmers a complication in bjp’s up strategy can making small farmers happy work

Jai which kisan protests by big farmers a complication in bjp’s up strategy can making small farmers happy work

Huge crowds at the Muzaffarnagar kisan mahapanchayat protesting GoI’s farm laws and the call to vote against BJP are not to be dismissed. The western UP belt with nearly 120 of the state’s 403 assembly seats enjoys profound political significance. BJP’s 2014 campaign for UP gained momentum in part after the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots. Jats and Muslims, often sharing socio-political alliances earlier, were ranged on opposing sides. Western UP continued to provide rich pickings for BJP. In 2017 UP state polls, BJP’s non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav SC coalition sealed a winning 43.3% vote share in this region against the party’s statewide vote share of 39.7%.

BJP’s central government passed the largely correct farm laws without much consultation. GoI should have known its laudable ambition of creating a robust private market for agri produce would come up against big farmers, who prefer assured earnings from state agencies. Now, the future of these laws is in limbo. The Supreme Court has stayed their implementation. PILs on them are pending for further hearing. There’s no clear indication of GoI’s position after its offer to temporarily suspend the laws. And UP polls are due around February-March 2022.

So, GoI’s future action, if any, will have more impact on western UP the closer it comes to polls. Repealing the laws may placate farmer leaders and help BJP politically in some ways. But there’s a price to pay – the immense political capital invested in convincing small and marginal farmers of reforms’ benefits will be wasted. They haven’t joined protests, since they don’t enjoy the benefit of MSP and subsidies. Another pre-poll sop is to significantly increase PM-Kisan payouts. That will make numerically larger small farmers happy but not mollify big farmers. BJP’s strategists have their work cut out figuring out the cost-benefit equation here. Giving in to pressure groups is not a sweet experience, as BJP knows already from ever-demanding sugarcane farmers.

Perhaps, the party is betting on its formidable caste coalition to hold despite the Jat unrest and a prospective Jat-Muslim alliance. In the past, BJP has reverse-consolidated votes against dominant groups. Here, though, the unprecedented Covid pandemic and economic distress are potential factors. Western UP’s 25% Muslim population, going up to 40%-plus in some districts, also affords BJP the chance for yet another attempt at non-Muslim consolidation. The party still holds many cards. But farm protests show India’s fractious electoral politics can create difficulties for anyone.