How significant is opposition unity

How significant is opposition unity

Diversity in unity is the underlying reality.

How material is the show of solidarity by an impressive line-up of parties opposed to the BJP at the swearing-in ceremony of Janata Dal (Secular)’s HD Kumarawamy as chief minister of Karnataka? Does this mean that the BJP, which secured the national mandate with 32% of the vote in 2014, is fated to bite the dust before a combined Opposition in 2019? Far from it. Things are a whole lot more complicated than a simple narrative of consolidation of all anti-BJP votes, mirroring the bonhomie of Opposition stalwarts on the Karnataka stage.

Take Mamata Banerjee and Sitaram Yechury. Will the Trinamool Congress and the CPI(M) join hands, to defeat the BJP in West Bengal’s Lok Sabha seats? Not a chance. Can Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party form an alliance with the Congress in next year’s Lok Sabha polls? Ruled out. Does it make any difference whether the DMK, whose leader was not present in Bangalore only because of the police firing in Thoothukudi, ties up with Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party? The two parties matter in different geographies and their mutual support will not make a difference to the outcome of one Lok Sabha seat in the country. But every combination of Opposition parties is not equally futile. The combination of BSP, SP and RLD in Uttar Pradesh, with the support of the Congress, is a potent force in Uttar Pradesh. Whether this is theoretical or actual will be known on May 31, when the result of the Kairana bypoll to take place on May 28 would be known. For the most part, where Opposition unity would count is after the 2019 elections, in which several of the leaders applauding Kumaraswamy as he took oath would fight one another tooth and nail. How they would combine would depend on the seats secured and who is best placed to form the next government.

Are post-poll coalitions bona fide? Such arrangements run Jammu & Kashmir, Goa, Manipur and Nagaland. Ditto for Britain, Germany and Spain. Five post-poll fronts have ruled India since 1989, including NDA and UPA. Politics is the art of the possible, not a morality play.