German election race heats up as leading parties push for stricter migration laws

German election race heats up as leading parties push for stricter migration laws

The Jan. 22 knife attack in South Germany has led the CDU, AfD to call for stricter immigration laws; this is the fourth lone-wolf incident in less than 2 years; despite a 34% drop in asylum applications from over 320,000 in 2023 to under 214,000 in 2024, migration remains a central issue of debate.

With less than four weeks left for the German national elections, the topic of migration has come back to the forefront following a knife attack in South Germany on January 22 that led to the death of two people, including a two-year-old boy.

The two political parties leading in national polls, the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), quickly called for stronger immigration regulations.

Anti-immigration speeches following the attack from the CDU and the AfD led to the passing of a non-binding motion to tighten immigration rules in the German Parliament on January 29. The motion proposed by the CDU was only passed with the help of the AfD, making it the first time in post-war German history that a motion was passed with the help of a far-right party.

“It’s a fatal sign for the future of German politics. I fear that this populistic debate is just strengthening the AfD and will weaken the entire democratic spectrum in the country,” said Tareq Alaows, refugee policy spokesperson for PRO Asyl, a pro-immigration advocacy group.

In German politics, one often hears the word ‘Brandmauer’ or firewall, where mainstream parties have resolved never to work with, pass laws with the support of, or form government coalitions with the far-right AfD. That resolve was somewhat breached when the CDU passed a motion with the AfD’s support.

Ferdinand Mirbach, senior expert, Immigration Society and Global Issues at the Stuttgart-based Robert Bosch Foundation, noted that the attack on January 22 has already had a concrete impact as migration and integration have become central election campaign topics. “The conservative CDU, clearly leading in current polls, has sharpened its rhetoric on migration. The AfD feels that its convictions have been confirmed and is trying to use the sad event to its advantage,” said Mr. Mirbach.

On January 31, an “Influx Limitation Law” was put to vote. After many deliberations and delays, this law couldn’t gather enough votes to win. Again, the CDU/CSU and the AfD were on the same side.

According to migration analyst Marcus Engler at DeZIM Institute, “The radicalisation of the conservative CDU began a few years ago. They hoped that it would reduce support for the far-right AfD. But this assumption proved deeply flawed, as it’s not working. AfD support has only increased over the years,” said Mr. Engler.

Lone-wolf attack

The knife attack was committed in Aschaffenburg in the south German state of Bavaria by an Afghan asylum seeker. According to Bavaria’s Interior Minister, Joachim Hermann, the alleged attacker is a 28-year-old psychiatric patient who arrived in Germany in late 2022 and sought asylum. His application was rejected, and he agreed to leave Germany by December 2024, but that never happened.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) condemned the attacks and expressed weariness about such attacks. He also called for an investigation as to why the attacker wasn’t deported from Germany on time. Authorities have ruled out any terror motive in this attack.

This knife attack is the fourth such lone-wolf attack in less than two years.

According to the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, asylum applications to Germany have dropped 34% from over 3,20,000 in 2023 to under 2,14,000 in 2024. But that hasn’t stopped constant debates around migration.

“Germany is lacking on all ends; there is no sufficient housing, the infrastructure on the constituency level is insufficient, and people’s salaries aren’t enough anymore since the inflation and the price increase. Nobody discusses social politics, but everybody talks about migration,” said Mr. Alaows.

The German economy has been weak, with two consecutive years of negative growth. In terms of housing, the outgoing government had declared building 4,00,000 new flats annually. However, per the Ifo Institute for Economic Research, only 2,45,000 new flats were built in 2023 and 2,10,000 in 2024.

In September 2024 following the AfD’s win in two German states, the CDU’s chancellor candidate, Friedrich Merz, said that “the CDU would be selling its soul if it cooperated with the AfD.” Fast-forward to last week, and Mr. Merz said he was willing to pass legislation for stricter migration measures irrespective of which party supported him.

Five-point plan

The major demands of Mr. Merz’s five-point plan in the non-binding motion passed on 29 January included permanent border controls, rejection of irregular arrivals, i.e., asylum seekers, detention of people whose asylum applications are rejected, and significantly increasing the number of deportations and restrictions on residency rights, including family reunions.

While this proposal has been passed, it clashes with many European-wide laws and contravenes the German Basic Law, which promises the right to asylum.

“Apart from the many legal aspects, the other obstacle is the capacity to enforce such a policy, which is impossible. How many police officers can be posted on the borders?” asks Mr. Engler, noting that it would also negatively impact the economy and trade.

Mr. Alaows said that there’s a high level of political disenfranchisement among migrants when mainstream parties compromise the so-called firewall. Mr Engler concurs. “It’s not just asylum seekers who are afraid but also highly qualified migrants — who Germany needs — who are feeling rejected,” he said.

On 2 February, around 1,60,000 citizens collected in central Berlin to protest against CDU partnering with AfD to pass a motion.

Even former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who belongs to the same party as Mr. Merz and has barely commented on domestic politics since she departed from office in 2021, broke her silence to criticise Mr. Merz.

Ms. Merkel’s words seem to have had some impact. On 31 January, when the “Influx Limitation Law” (proposed by Merz’s Christian Democrats) was tabled, 12 parliamentarians belonging to the CDU/CSU voted against it.

At CDU’s party congress on 3 February, Mr. Merz reiterated his stand on the AfD: “We will never work with the party Alternative for Germany (AfD), not before the election, not after – never.” However, the CDU has seen a 2% drop in its poll numbers since last week. At 28%, the CDU/CSU tops the polls, followed by AfD at 20%, SPD at 16%, and Greens at 15%. Not everyone in the CDU/CSU agrees with Mr Merz’s stance.