Failing the people

Failing the people

Opinion polls show neither BJP nor Congress winning, because neither is offering a jobs solution
Over the past week two opinion polls pointing to a hung Parliament after Lok Sabha elections have delivered bad news to both BJP-led NDA and Congress-led UPA. Both polls project a fall of around 90 seats for NDA from its 2014 tally of 336 and only a concurrent UPA gain from its 2014 nadir of 60. Regional parties could hold the keys to government formation and this is pushing BJP’s outreach to its sulking partners. While the seat projections can change dramatically between now and election time, the opinion polls do offer an important, stable insight that neither BJP nor Congress should ignore.

In one poll 37% of the respondents name unemployment as the issue that concerns them the most. In the second one, employment is listed as the defining issue by 38.7% participants, as against 19.1% picking loan waivers and agri schemes, 15.5% the temple issue, 6.3% quotas, and issues like Rafale getting an even more lukewarm response. This suggests voters understand the limited capacity of the likes of loan waivers and quotas to improve their quality of life; they can also see through communal canards. Further, this indicates why something like the Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s promise of a minimum income guarantee would be attractive to voters. But an electorate scarred by jumlas may take this as one too, as it remains shorn of details.

Thursday’s split by election results also underline a frayed political narrative unlike 2014, with no tailwinds for any party despite general election at the doorstep. Congress won decisively in Ramgarh, Rajasthan and BJP in Jind, Haryana. Like pre-election opinion polls two assembly byelections do not a summer make, but the general takeaway is there is a lot of room for improvement in the messaging of both the national parties.

Today’s budget is one last opportunity for the Modi government to convey positive intent on addressing jobless growth – long in the making but tipped over the precipice by draconian demonetisation. Unreleased NSSO data reportedly shows unemployment rate is now at a 45-year high. Equally worryingly, a recent study points out that an inflation adjusted investment of Rs 1 crore that led to the employment of about 90 factory workers in 1983 can create only eight such jobs in 2016. These twin stats underscore the extent and complexity of the jobs challenge facing India today. The two national parties should offer voters meaningful solutions, not just futile sops and hostile soundbites.