Europe confronts a fractured alliance after the u s policy shift on ukraine

Europe confronts a fractured alliance after the u s policy shift on ukraine

The shock switch in policy from the U.S. prompted European leaders to vow to ramp up defence capacities through higher spending; ‘we have to fear that our common-value base is not that common any more’, says chairman of the Munich Security Forum, after Vance’s speech at annual conference.

Lofty rhetoric and frank acknowledgements of a new world order have not been in short supply from European leaders since the new American administration of Donald Trump took office, but it will take an immense leap to translate such sentiments into reality, analysts and observers say.

Mr. Trump spoke over the heads of not only Europe but also Ukraine by declaring he was ready to negotiate with Russia to end the three-year war, while his Vice President J.D. Vance left seasoned policymakers dazed with a withering attack on the EU at the Munich Security Forum.

“It’s really a ‘make or break’ moment,” said a European source. “While the war continues, (...) things bigger than Ukraine are at stake in Ukraine, starting with our security.”

The shock switch in policy from the U.S. prompted European leaders to vow to ramp up defence capacities through higher spending and even to consider sending troops to Ukraine to enforce an eventual ceasefire.

Emergency talks of key European leaders called on Monday by French President Emmanuel Macron were aimed at showing a united front, but immediately exposed tensions with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz saying he was “a little irritated” by suggestions, from the likes of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, that troops should be deployed.

In the most concrete sign that the United States has brought Russia back from the cold, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held talks with American counterpart Marco Rubio in Saudi Arabia later Tuesday.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told presspersons in Paris: “Everyone at this meeting is aware that transatlantic relations, the NATO alliance and our friendship with the United States have entered a new phase.”

NATO chief Mark Rutte said the Europeans were “ready and willing” to step up, while EU commission chief Ursula von der Leyen called for a “surge” in defence.

‘Clock ticking’

The chairman of the Munich Security Forum Christoph Heusgen, after the annual conference was shocked by Mr. Vance’s speech, went as far as to say: “We have to fear that our common-value base is not that common anymore”.

As if to emphasise his point, some accounts on social media edited his speech to show him weeping when he said this, although in fact his emotion came after he thanked his team over his last year in charge. “This unfortunately shows again how the mechanisms of disinformation work,” Mr. Heusgen later said on social media.

Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, said that while the West is “perilously close to the worst-case scenario on Trump and Ukraine”, Europe should have seen the trouble coming.

“The European reaction seemed stunned — which is just as worrying,” he said.

Debates in full swing

For Alberto Alemanno, professor of EU law at the HEC Paris business school, the Paris meeting showed “major differences” among European countries over committing peacekeeping troops to Ukraine and funding a massive defence investment push. “At least the debate is now in full swing across capitals and beyond but the clock is ticking,” he said.

The potential challenge of finding unity within the EU were underlined by the stance at the Elysee Palace meeting of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni who arrived conspicuously late and echoed concerns about troop deployments.

Sending troops was “the most complex and the least effective” way of securing peace in Ukraine, she said according to reports confirmed by an Italian government source said.

Ms. Meloni, who revels in her cordial ties with Trump and his advisor the X and Tesla owner Elon Musk, also said the meeting should not be an “anti-Trump” initiative, the source added. Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics, whose country shares a border with Russia, said that since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, there had been much talk in Europe about increasing defence spending, but “our capabilities are not enough”.

“I’m afraid that, after a couple of days, after strong statements, we will somehow relax, will relax again, and we will go back to business as usual,” he said after the Munich meeting.

Defence spending

While the informal Paris talks were not aimed at forging an accord, many leaders agreed that one key step for the European Union was to relax its strict fiscal rules to allow higher defence spending by member states.

For former Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, who was present in Munich, the United States is “no longer happy to be the main guarantor of security in Europe” and “does not see the EU as it once did”.

“Europe is technically fully able to adapt and rise to this challenge, but the question remains one of political will, or the lack of it. Indecision will lead in only one direction, and it won’t be pretty.”