Don’t dodge data

Don’t dodge data

Lack of accurate statistics has no upside and only downsides.

Two independent members of the National Statistical Commission resigned last week, leaving the seven-member institution denuded to just two government representatives. Resignees included chair PC Mohanan, who revealed they were being bypassed on one issue after another, leaving them unable to discharge their functions. For example, NSSO employment data ready for two months is not being released. A leaked version shows the unemployment rate for 2017-18 to be at 6.1%, a 45-year high. This data has not been denied outright by the government. For not releasing the report, Niti Aayog has offered the excuse that government is yet to approve the data. But it is not at all the government’s remit to do so. In fact arm’s length distance from government is what has long provided Indian data credibility. The NDA government should not destroy this invaluable asset.

Controversy was also raked up when, just ahead of the Budget, the government revised GDP growth estimates for the last two financial years sharply upwards, turning the story of slowdown in the year of demonetisation on its head by showing 8.2% acceleration in economic activity in 2016-17. This exacerbates the doubts that have been brewing since the back series of GDP data was released last year. Not only did Niti Aayog helm the release instead of the chief statistician of India, the back series was incomplete. It extended only to the UPA era, revising growth rates during that period downwards but leaving NDA-1 untouched.

A post-truth approach to data has no upside, only downsides. If the fear is that statistics of high unemployment will go against the government narrative of ‘acche din’ in an election season, voters don’t respond to economic statistics, they respond to their lived reality and that of people they know – whether they have jobs and their aspirations are being met (or otherwise). Second, good data is central to modern policy making; policy is deaf and blind without it.

Third, growing speculation that Indian statistics are being politically filtered hurts the government too, because the shadow falls over even its hard-won achievements. If investors begin to doubt the government’s figures, they will not come even if those figures are genuinely good. Fourth, it’s always better to face up to existing problems rather than brush them under the carpet, which only makes them grow. The government must stop this dangerous slide in credibility now, before it’s too late.