Desert storm

Desert storm

Khashoggi affair suggests Saudi Arabia’s reforms are following the China pattern.

In a sign that the powerful Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, aka MBS, is veering off the reformist script that he himself had laid out for his country, Riyadh is cracking down harshly on dissidents. The latest case involves the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi who was last seen entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Turkish authorities believe that Khashoggi was killed by a Saudi hit squad.

Though MBS has vowed to finish radicalism emanating from the Islamic kingdom, his targets have been selective. He has ushered in some freedom for Saudi women, allowing them to drive and enjoy greater mobility, but has also arrested women’s rights activists. Similarly, around 1,500 people have been arrested as part of a drive to crack down on “misuse” of free speech, which in most parts of the world would be seen simply as exercise of free speech.

If these are reforms then they are reforms Chinese style. MBS has something in common with Chinese President Xi Jinping who used a wide-ranging anticorruption campaign to eliminate his political opponents and stamp his authority. However Saudi Arabia is not China, currently striking out as a superpower attempting to replace the US. Instead, Saudi Arabia is dependent on the US which is led by the mercurial President Donald Trump. While Trump had supported MBS’s aggressive moves in the Gulf region earlier and appeared indifferent to human rights, he has suddenly turned around and vowed “severe punishment” if the kingdom’s leaders are linked to Khashoggi’s disappearance. MBS has a historic opportunity to transform his country – and the Middle East. He must not let it slip. New Delhi has vital interests in Saudi Arabia, and a reformed and modernised kingdom would work in its favour. At present, it can only watch in trepidation.