Chhattisgarh stakes

Chhattisgarh stakes

Development financed by mining receipts gave BJP an edge but Congress is close behind.

The seat sharing agreement between BSP supremo Mayawati and Janta Congress Chhattisgarh floated by Ajit Jogi raises the possibility of a triangular contest which may work to the ruling BJP’s advantage in Chhattisgarh. Chief minister Raman Singh has won three consecutive terms but BJP’s marginal vote share difference with Congress, which progressively declined from 2.5% in 2003 to 1.7% in 2008 and just 0.75% in 2013, gives no party a clear edge this time. If Congress leaders would blame Jogi for working against party candidates in earlier elections, their gripe this time is that Jogi, now outside the Congress fold, threatens to split the anti-BJP vote.

While Jogi’s exit has brought peace, Congress is still grappling with the absence of a leader of Raman Singh’s stature. Congress had eyed the 4.27% votes polled by BSP in 2013 to bridge the gap with BJP but while it dithered over ceding seats and space to BSP, Jogi moved in for the kill. BSP’s cold shoulder to Congress can have an impact across the border in Madhya Pradesh too. Their state-level gathbandhans to counter BJP are looking doomed even before inception. Having aligned with Congress, BJP and SP in Uttar Pradesh in the 1990s, BSP does have a knack for political flexibility.

But in allying with Jogi and his untested party, Mayawati is in uncharted waters. The divided opposition in Chhattisgarh has benefited BJP in other ways too. The 2014 Rangarajan panel report flagging Chhattisgarh for India’s highest poverty rate, despite rapid GSDP growth since 2003 that outstripped other backward states, was explosive political fodder pointing to growth not trickling down but a disjointed Congress missed that opportunity too. So if Congress squanders anti-incumbency, it has no one else to blame.

Raman Singh’s achievements like curbing Naxalism and malnutrition through PDS reforms and improved grassroots governance were talking points in 2013 but may have lesser traction now. With corruption allegations too surfacing, he appears slightly jaded. Singh’s focus on commercialising Chhattisgarh’s abundant mineral wealth has boosted revenue receipts and enables it to allocate a greater budgetary share to key areas like health and education than most Indian states. Astute politicians tend to plateau over time even as people’s expectations rise and this could be Raman Singh’s challenge in aiming for his fourth term.