Big july worries vax rate slowing supply issues back infection numbers sticky health minister has his job cut out

Big july worries vax rate slowing supply issues back infection numbers sticky health minister has his job cut out

Hopes of India accelerating its vaccination programme have been dashed by July performance so far. Average daily vaccination dipped below 40 lakh past week. Vaccination’s importance is also underscored by the pandemic’s presently uncertain trajectory. Detected Covid cases have alarmingly plateaued for over two weeks, after a long steady fall in second wave numbers. Concurrently, researchers have identified a slight uptick in virus transmissions around this same period. Social distancing measures are losing traction as movement restrictions get lifted and public weariness reflects in phenomena like “revenge tourism”. Any complacency is extremely dangerous. Both vaccination and Covid appropriate norms need a determined push from GoI.

Therefore, new health minister Mansukh Mandaviya will need to act quickly and decisively. A looming third wave requires him to pursue countermeasures on war footing. Two states, Maharashtra and Kerala, are reporting 1 lakh active cases. The entire southern and eastern belts of the country are following at some distance. Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha, Bengal and Assam have over 10,000 active cases each. Test positivity rate in at least five Northeast states is hovering around 15%. The new Delta plus variant accounts for 90% of samples tested in Tripura.

The mystery surrounding the circulation of the virus is only rivalled, perhaps, by the waxing and waning of vaccination numbers. After 9 crore doses administered in April, vaccination dipped to 6 crore jabs in May, revived to 12 crore doses in June and, at current rates, will be 12 crore or less in July. A month ago, the December target of vaccinating all adults required 80 lakh jabs a day, seven days a week. But every day of middling performance keeps postponing further the prospect of herd immunity. Plus, there’s the issue of more jabs for high-incidence states to beat down their lingering second wave.

Pharma companies are reporting that critical inputs like bioreactor bags, single-use assemblies, cell culture media, vials etc are in short supply. They are demanding greater global cooperation to ease trade restrictions on critical inputs besides technology transfers. Mandaviya must work the Covax channels to mount global pressure for easing these bottlenecks. Domestically, he must keep a close watch on Covaxin, amid reports of manufacturing delays. With his remit over both public health and pharma, Mandaviya must set himself the target of India vaccinating all adults by December.