Battle for karnataka

Battle for karnataka

Congress is desperate for a win and BJP needs to gauge popular mood before LS polls.

With ticket distribution mostly over, Congress and BJP are set for a high voltage contest in Karnataka. Save for last year’s Punjab victory, it has been a downhill journey for Congress. The last time it successfully defended a government in a big state against anti-incumbency was in 2009 in Maharashtra and Haryana. In recent years, Siddaramaiah has emerged as the tallest OBC leader in Congress and an astute politician with a mastery over social engineering tactics, and not surprisingly Congress fancies itself a winner.

The party’s decisions to field Siddaramaiah from just one seat and retain most sitting MLAs signal confidence in tiding over anti-incumbency. But revolts by those denied tickets and factionalism can cost heavily. With Deve Gowda’s JD(S) in the reckoning in southern Karnataka a hung assembly cannot be ruled out either. BJP under BS Yeddyurappa has failed to seal the anti-corruption plank, a potent weapon against most Congress regimes, forcing BJP president Amit Shah to lead the campaign, which may not yield dividends in a state where Kannada is the dominant language.

However Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who helped BJP win 17 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka in 2014 very soon after the humiliating defeat in 2013, is yet to enter the campaign fray and may alter equations when he does. Past vote shares indicate a close fight. BJP went from 20% votes polled in 2013 to 43% in 2014, also bolstered by Yeddyurappa’s return. Congress went from 36% voteshare in 2013 to 41% in 2014 and has since won most bypolls. JD(S)’s vote share dipped from 20% to 11% from 2013 to 2014 but a lot can change closer to polling as Gujarat proved. The Karnataka outcome is important because Congress seeking to rebound under Rahul Gandhi and BJP looking for a toehold in the restive south cannot afford a defeat at this juncture.