Azerbaijan standoff challenges russia’s post soviet influence

Azerbaijan standoff challenges russia’s post soviet influence

Relations soured after a 2024 jet crash near Aktau and worsened after Russian police raided ethnic Azerbaijanis in Russia; Baku’s criticism of Putin signals a shift, while for Moscow, the row highlights its weakening hold over former Soviet region.

Azerbaijan and Russia are locked in an escalating diplomatic standoff that has underscored Moscow’s weakening supremacy in the Caucasus, a strategic region where major powers are vying for influence.

For Azerbaijan, once wary of alienating Moscow, the standoff has snowballed into one of the sharpest public rifts in years and a potential turning point in its balancing act between Russia and the West.

Deadly crash

The downturn in relations started when an Azerbaijani Airlines passenger jet crash-landed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, killing 38 of the 67 people on board in December 2024.

The aircraft had been en route to the southern Russian city of Grozny when it is widely reported to have been hit by Russian anti-aircraft defences that were trying to thwart a Ukrainian drone attack.

In a rare public clash with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev demanded an apology, admission of guilt, and also punishment for those found responsible for the “criminal” downing of the plane.

Further angering Azerbaijan, Mr. Putin acknowledged that Russian air defences were operational in the area at the time of the crash but did not admit Russia shot down the plane by mistake, instead only apologising for the fact that the “incident” occurred in Russian air space.

The relationship deteriorated further after Russian police on June 27 targeted ethnic Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg in raids authorities said were related to a years-old criminal case. Two people died and six were arrested.

Baku has accused Russian police of “torture” and deliberately killing them, while Moscow said one man suffered a heart attack during the raid and the second death was under investigation. The incident unleashed a storm of public anger in Azerbaijan, with media and officials denouncing what they described as “systematic brutality” against Azerbaijanis in Russia.

Journalists detained

Days later, Azerbaijani police raided the Baku office of Sputnik, Russia’s state-run news agency, detaining three Russian journalists with the footage broadcast on pro-state TV.

Bureau chief Igor Kartavykh and editor-in-chief Yevgeny Belousov were later ordered into four months of pre-trial detention on charges of fraud and money laundering.

Azerbaijan had officially banned the bureau from operating in February, but it had reportedly continued its operations. Russian officials denounced the detentions as “unlawful” and politically motivated.

In a separate case, pro-Baku media outlets on Tuesday broadcast images of beaten-up Russians, with bloody and swollen faces in a court hearing, where they were ordered into pre-trial detention on charges of drug trafficking.

Both Moscow and Baku have already summoned each other’s ambassador for dressing downs.

Russia criticised Azerbaijan’s “highly emotional response”, accused it of “deliberately dismantling bilateral ties” and “growing hostility”.

Baku cancelled all Russian cultural events due to what it called “systematic acts of violence” against its citizens. The state-run AzTV broadcaster aired a programme denouncing political repression in Russia and comparing Mr. Putin to Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin.

Call with Zelenskyy

Azerbaijan is testing its decades-old reliance on Russia with the most open criticism in years of Moscow, including personal attacks on Mr. Putin in state media — a sign of Baku’s increasing assertiveness and confidence on the world stage.

For Moscow, the row highlights its weakening grip on a region it ruled for decades, with its ongoing invasion of Ukraine having spooked its ex-Soviet partners across the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Amid the escalating row, Mr. Aliyev held a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday — drawing ire from the Kremlin which accused Kyiv of pouring fuel on the fire.