America opts out

America opts out

Trump’s foreign policy moves are creating a global leadership vacuum.

President Donald Trump has followed through on something he had been threatening to do for a while – pull the US out of the Iran nuclear deal. As the world tries to figure out how to cope with the fallout, a larger question looms about America’s global leadership role. The Iran nuclear deal is the third major international accord that Trump has junked – the other two being the Paris Climate Accord and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement. He is also threatening to pull the plug on NAFTA and WTO.

In fact, much of Trump’s ‘America First’ policy approach now seems to be more like ‘America Alone’. The US has been at the core of many international and multilateral institutions created since 1945, and its withdrawal from them would create a dangerous vacuum at the heart of global affairs. The question then arises who can step into America’s shoes to shore up international stability. China may want to throw its hat into the ring, but the communist country is too insecure and focussed on narrow self-interest to play a global leadership role. And this won’t change anytime soon given China’s evident unilateralism in a variety of areas.

Europe could be an alternative, but it continues to present the Kissingerian dilemma: Who to dial if one wants to call Europe? France under Emmanuel Macron is keen to pursue a robust foreign policy. But it lacks America’s diplomatic or economic heft. Germany under Angela Merkel is too staid and Euro-centric. Another possible contender could be Japan, which has taken the initiative to keep the TPP going in a diluted form. But it has an aging society and is too much of a camp follower. Taken together, if America recedes from its leadership role, the world is likely to become more chaotic, disorderly and riven by conflict.