Alliance game

Alliance game

BJP quicker off the mark, but many things could change before general elections.

With the 2019 Lok Sabha polls shaping up to be a battle of alliances, parties have begun jockeying for the best deals. BJP appears to be moving faster here. This was exemplified by Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar’s recent announcement that his JD(U) party had come to a respectable seat-sharing agreement with BJP. Though Nitish did not reveal the actual seat sharing formula, that an understanding has been reached well in advance of the 2019 polls indicates BJP is moving with its customary alacrity in political matters.

Similarly, in Telangana chief minister K Chandrashekar Rao recently decided to dissolve the state assembly to facilitate early polls. And although his TRS party hasn’t announced any formal alliances so far, the very fact that KCR made disparaging remarks about Congress president Rahul Gandhi – calling him a buffoon – shows that he is leaning towards BJP. Meanwhile on the opposition front, Congress, Telugu Desam Party and CPI have formed an alliance to take on KCR. However, it remains to be seen if this translates into a similar coalition in the other Telugu speaking state of Andhra Pradesh.

But the most politically impactful alliance, should it materialise, will be the one between BSP and SP in Uttar Pradesh. BJP had won a massive 71 out of 80 seats in UP in 2014. It was helped by a split in the Dalit and Muslim votes and a consolidation of non-Yadav OBC votes. But an SP-BSP alliance can negate this and consolidate the anti-BJP vote. However, complications remain as SP votes may not be as smoothly transferable to BSP as BSP votes are to SP.

BSP drew a blank in 2014 and fared poorly in the 2017 assembly polls. Thus, the next general election will be a do-or-die scenario for BSP chief Mayawati. This is precisely why she has said that she might go it alone unless she gets a respectable number of seats to contest. Plus, Mayawati is facing a quiet challenge to her leadership from within the Dalit community as exemplified by the rise in popularity of Chandrashekhar Azad and his Bhim Army. Taken together, given the disparate political DNA of the constituents, the opposition camp is yet to develop proper chemistry. This is needed if the opposition is to capitalise on anti-incumbency and match BJP’s organisational strength and speed on the ground.