Afghan quagmire

Afghan quagmire

India can’t put boots on the ground, must protect its interests diplomatically.

In the backdrop of impending US withdrawal from Afghanistan, US President Donald Trump has criticised Afghanistan’s neighbours for not doing enough. He suggested that India should be doing more to combat extremism in that country. However, if that means exercising hard power on Afghan soil and filling the vacuum that a potential US withdrawal would cause, there is every reason for New Delhi to exercise caution.

India already has a lot on its plate with the situation in Kashmir possibly heating up in the days ahead. Pakistan might try to push in more terrorists to undermine India’s Article 370 decision. Plus, Pakistan has a geographic advantage vis-a-vis Afghanistan and has always blocked India’s access to that landlocked nation. Add to this Islamabad’s leverage with Taliban who are currently engaged in talks with the US for a peace deal. The situation in Afghanistan today is a hornet’s nest, likely to turn even more complicated if the US withdraws. If Indian troops get involved here, our country would be sucked into a vicious proxy war with huge costs.

Thus, the Afghan situation doesn’t favour an Indian security intervention. However, India does have legitimate development interests in Afghanistan. And New Delhi must work hard diplomatically to protect these. One option is to work closely with Iran which has considerable influence in Afghanistan. Ideally, India and Pakistan should arrive at a modus vivendi on Afghanistan. After all, Taliban’s revival can boost Pashtun nationalism as well as radical Islamism inside Pakistan, creating a headache for Islamabad. Afghan stability won’t be achieved by playing zero-sum games. But with Islamabad talking up the prospects of a war against India to make its case on Kashmir, such cooperation looks extremely unlikely at present.