Acreage deficit in rice points to need to monitor crop status production stocks — not to throw farmers or trade into a tizzy

Acreage deficit in rice points to need to monitor crop status production stocks — not to throw farmers or trade into a tizzy

The acreage deficit in rice for the current kharif cropping season over last year has come down to 3.1 million hectares (mh), according to the Agriculture Ministry’s latest report on August 18. While an improvement over the previous week’s figure of 4.4 mh, it is still cause for concern. The bulk of kharif paddy transplanting happens during June-July. Deficient monsoon rains this time in UP, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal have delayed these operations. Although rainfall has picked up in August, farmers in the four states would have missed the main sowing window. They would, if at all, have planted short-duration varieties of about 125 days (from seed to grain), as against the normal, more high-yielding crop maturing in 150-160 days. Even the current sowing gap of 3.1 mh, at an all-India average rice yield of 2.7 tonnes per hectare, translates into a production decline of nearly 8.5 million tonnes (mt).

But that’s not the only source of worry. Farmers in Punjab and Haryana — where rice yields average 4-4.5 tonnes per hectare —have been reporting a disease resulting in stunting of paddy. This “dwarfing” disease, whose cause has not been identified as yet, can potentially impact production in the most productive rice-growing belt. The two states together contribute close to 30 per cent of rice to the central procurement pool and 90 per cent of India’s basmati exports. For now, the extent of damage —the stunted plants are unlikely to bear any panicles or grain —isn’t known, even as there is no evidence of the infection being confined only to particular varieties or areas that also cover parts of neighbouring western UP and the Terai plains of Uttarakhand.

The one consolation is that rice stocks in government godowns, at 41 mt as of August 1, are only marginally below the record 44.5 mt for this date last year. Rice, unlike wheat, is cultivated both during kharif and rabi as well as in a wider geographical area. There is, hence, that much more flexibility when it comes to covering production shortfalls in rice. The Narendra Modi government should not resort to any knee-jerk measures such as export bans or restrictions like it did in wheat and sugar. India is the world’s largest rice exporter; the last thing it should do is follow Indonesia’s ill-advised decision to ban palm oil shipments (thankfully revoked). There is a need to closely monitor crop status, production and stocks, not to throw farmers or the trade into a tizzy.