2024 is far away state poll results are important but recently they have been poor predictors for national polls

2024 is far away state poll results are important but recently they have been poor predictors for national polls

Telangana chief minister K Chandrashekar Rao’s meeting with Maharashtra counterpart Uddhav Thackeray and NCP supremo Sharad Pawar represents another attempt by regional parties to find answers to BJP’s national dominance. Meanwhile, the ongoing five-state assembly elections are witnessing SP in UP, AAP in Punjab and NPP in Manipur offering resistance to BJP, and Congress. But if opposition parties do well in this round, a big if, what might it mean for national elections in 2024? Going by recent history, all extrapolations should be consumed with large helpings of salt, even though it is true that a major state victory does provide political impetus.

Congress’s strong showing in three Hindi heartland states in 2018 was supposed to have a bearing on BJP’s 2019 LS poll performance. But it hardly mattered. There is now all round recognition that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has partly altered the dynamics of national elections. Voters in some states may also be distinguishing between a vote for Modi at the national level and BJP in states. So, it can work badly for BJP, too. Post its huge LS win in 2019, BJP faced adverse or not-too-happy outcomes in Haryana, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Delhi and Bengal.

What is undisputed is that regional parties are struggling to spot a durable national alternative or a pan-India leader to take on Modi. Parties like TMC and AAP are attempting to tackle this by testing waters in multiple states. Another reality check for some regional parties is their struggle in LS polls, even against Congress. In 2019, AAP trailed behind BJP and Congress in vote share in Delhi. TRS, which trounced a grand alliance of Congress-led opposition parties in 2018, had to share the honours with BJP and Congress six months later. Similarly, in Kerala, CPM, though dominant in the assembly and panchayats, was decimated by Congress-led UDF in 2019.

No less facile is the talk of UP elections as the semifinal before 2024. There are other states that matter. Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh this year, and Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana in 2023, are all poised to witness intense contestation. But then again, if, say, BJP wins in Telangana and Congress in MP – it doesn’t necessarily mean that 2024 will see a saffron surge in the south and GOP revitalisation in the heartland. In 2017, Congress almost wrested Gujarat from BJP. In 2019, it got thumped. So, an assembly poll win in UP is great for BJP or SP. But it is no predictor for 2024.