While addressing the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament, U.S. President Donald Trump declared that the ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, which he had helped broker, marked “the historical dawn of the new Middle East”. In Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, Arab and Muslim leaders joined him in praising his 20-point peace plan. While all sides hailed Mr. Trump’s role as a peacemaker, the declaration of a new era of peace in West Asia, claiming to end a “3,000-year-old” conflict, glosses over deep and enduring complexities. The Gaza ceasefire, which appears to be holding with Hamas and Israel releasing hostages and prisoners, is undoubtedly a relief for Palestinians and hostage families. But the greater challenge lies in implementing the next phase, let alone building “a new Middle East”. A notable outcome of the Sharm el-Sheikh summit was the joint declaration by Egypt, Qatar, Türkiye and the U.S., also calling for the safeguarding of the fundamental rights of Palestinians and Israelis. It recognised the region’s historical and spiritual significance to multiple faiths, and committed signatories to dismantling extremism and radicalisation. But the declaration was silent on more contentious issues — Hamas’s disarmament, one of the central objectives of the Trump plan, or of Israel’s continuing military presence in Gaza.
Mr. Trump later claimed that Hamas had promised to disarm, warning that “If they don’t disarm, we will disarm them..., perhaps violently”. But Israel, despite its two years in Gaza, has still failed to disarm Hamas. How then does Mr. Trump plan to disarm them? He also claimed that the Iran threat had been neutralised, and urged more Arab countries to join the Abraham Accords. While Iran’s regional influence has been dented, it remains an influential regional player. Hezbollah, despite military setbacks, continues to be a powerful socio-political actor within Lebanon, and U.S.-led attempts to disarm the Shia group have gone nowhere. In Yemen, despite relentless Saudi, American, British and Israeli bombing campaigns, the Houthis, another Iranian ally, still control key population centres, including Sana’a. Moreover, Arab countries now have growing security concerns about Israel, particularly after its bombing of Qatar in September. Against this background, Mr. Trump’s sweeping claims of regional peace ring hollow. What he should prioritise instead is ensuring that the Gaza ceasefire holds. The next step should be forcing Hamas to give up power in the enclave while pressing Israel to withdraw. Once peace is consolidated and reconstruction begins, the U.S., with its Arab and European allies, should work towards a practical road map for the establishment of a Palestinian state. Unless the Palestine question is resolved and the Israeli occupation ends, grand declarations about remaking the region will remain little more than empty rhetoric.
