Though there is no large-scale mobilisation of the Indian military, the forces have been holding exercises; naval vessels undertook successful multiple anti-ship firings to revalidate and demonstrate readiness of platforms, systems and crew for long-range precision offensive strike.
Ceasefire violations by Pakistan troops continued along the Line of Control (LoC) for the third night on Saturday, while the Indian Navy and the Indian Air Force held exercises on Sunday as tensions run high after the Pahalgam terror attack.
Pakistan began massive mobilisation of equipment close to the LoC. “On the night of 26-27 April, Pakistan Army posts initiated unprovoked small arms fire across the Line of Control in the areas opposite Tutmari Gali and Rampur Sectors,” an Army official said on Sunday. “Own troops responded effectively with appropriate small arms fire.”
Despite several tit-for-tat measures, neither side has so far walked away from the understanding to re-adhere to the ceasefire on the LoC reached in February 2022.
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar held a telephone conversation with his British counterpart, David Lammy, on Sunday, during which, Mr. Jaishankar said, they discussed the Pahalgam terror attack and “underlined the importance of zero tolerance for terrorism”. Mr. Lammy also spoke to Pakistan Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, on which the Pakistan Foreign Ministry said the British Foreign Secretary emphasised the need for “de-escalation” of the situation.
As all indicators point to a possible kinetic action by India, there are a wide range of options despite the lack of element of surprise, as in the case of the Uri surgical strikes in 2016 and the Balakot air strike in 2019. Though there is no large-scale mobilisation of the Indian military, the forces are holding exercises, which also serve as a show of strength.
“Indian Navy Ships undertook successful multiple anti-ship firings to revalidate and demonstrate readiness of platforms, systems and crew for long-range precision offensive strike,” the Navy said on Sunday as videos showed several frontline ships firing the BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles.
Just a few days ago, the Navy’s latest guided missile destroyer, INS Surat, fired the medium-range surface-to-air missile (MRSAM) against a “sea skimming” target in the western Indian Ocean. The BrahMos missile with all three Services, jointly developed by India and Russia with variants that can be fired from land, sea, and air, could be a game changer and a possible spearhead for any Indian punitive strikes on terrorist infrastructure or military targets in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir or inside Pakistan. The BrahMos, originally capped at a range of 290 km, has now gone to 450 km and even 600km and its supersonic speed coupled with its other features offers a viable instrument which could also allow India to limit the escalation cycle.
The indigenous aircraft carrier INS Vikrant, which is based at the Karwar port on the western seaboard, is on deployment in the Arabian Sea as shown by satellite images. The other carrier INS Vikramaditya is undergoing a regular refit.
From the air power perspective, the Air Force now operates 36 multi-role Rafale jets, which it did not have in 2019. The Rafales are equipped with the Meteor Beyond Visual Range (BVR) missile with a range of over 250 km and also the Scalp long-range air-to-ground weapons. This package, combined with a few additional early warning platforms and other technological upgrades overall in the past few years, gives a decisive edge and a formidable option for decision makers. Starting 2021, the Air Force had also begun inducting the long range S-400 Triumf air defence systems from Russia, and three regiments have been deployed along the northern, eastern, and western borders.
Ground option
The ground option is the use of the Army’s Special Forces or unleashing a barrage of artillery or long-range rockets, the indigenous Pinaka and Russian Smerch systems, if the targets chosen are within range. One of the key determinants in narrowing down on an option, apart from achieving the intended objective, would be to factor in the response of Pakistan and how far up the escalation cycle is the country willing to go, if it spirals up.
The Air Force’s Exercise Akraman is under way over vast swathes of the Central sector, which defence sources said was a routine exercise. The Air Force has issued a Notice to Airmen for Exercise Dhruvtara from May 6 to 11.
