With at least 959 Ukrainian defenders of the Azovstal steel works plant surrendering to Russian forces in Mariupol, Moscow now has effective control of the battered Ukrainian city. Mariupol’s fall makes it the biggest city to be captured by Russian forces in the ongoing war and gives Moscow total control over the Azov sea coast. It also enables a strategic land bridge from Russian-controlled Crimea in southern Ukraine to the separatist Donbas region in the east. But this has come at a huge price for Moscow. The stubborn Ukrainian resistance in Mariupol for 82 days bogged down a huge amount of Russian military resources.
In short, Russia’s military plans have gone horribly wrong. Ukraine continues to be militarily replenished by the US and EU. Hitherto neutral Finland and Sweden have applied to join Nato. And Russia stands increasingly isolated in the comity of nations. Yet, Vladimir Putin can’t be seen to be losing face and hence has pushed on with his military operations. But the fall of Mariupol potentially gives him the face-saver he desperately needs.
With Mariupol Putin should have enough to justify his Ukraine gambit and call off wider hostilities. True, Ukrainians will continue to claim Mariupol. But this would be akin to Kyiv’s claims over Crimea and Donbas since 2014. Besides, it’s in Moscow’s self-interest to pause now. After all, it’s clear that the US has shifted its goalpost from defending Ukraine to definitively weakening Russia. Plus, there is still some daylight between EU and US over Russia. But if Russia continues with the war, EU and US positions will coalesce. Halting the war in Ukraine will also provide succour to the international community reeling from rising energy prices, disrupted trade and growing food shortages. India, which has been forced to walk a diplomatic tightrope on the war, will certainly breathe a sigh of relief if hostilities cease. It’s a long shot, but Moscow should play smart and cut its losses now.
